IN THE same week Dan McStay returns to play his first game at the Gabba since an off-season move to Collingwood, the spotlight has been squarely on his former teammates Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher.
Any expert, read, former player, that has been asked this week to give an opinion on Brisbane's twin forward targets has slammed them.
MEDICAL ROOM Check out the full injury list
Perhaps the most notable was former Lions champion Jonathan Brown, who said the duo was not good enough to lead Chris Fagan's team to a premiership.
"I think any key forward needs to be reliable and predictable to his teammates and I'm not seeing reliable and predictable to their teammates in Hipwood and Daniher," Brown told Fox Footy.
Ahead of Thursday night's sold-out blockbuster in Brisbane, a deep dive into the home team's forward line in 2023 shows there's merit to the criticism.
Let's start with Daniher and Hipwood.
Raw statistics tell only part of the story.
Three matches, of a possible 23 plus finals this year, is a very small sample, but the numbers and lack of impact are there to see.
Hipwood has kicked two goals, taken two contested marks and averaged 5.7 disposals a game, while Daniher has kicked five goals, taken one contested mark and averaged 9.7 disposals a game.
DRAFT HUB Click here for the latest draft news
Thanks to statistics provided by Champion Data, look a little deeper and the alarm bells get a little louder.
Hipwood has won just one of his nine one-on-one contests this season, which ranks him 42nd of the top 50 targets inside 50 in the competition, while Daniher has only had three chances in those isolated contests.
The duo has never been the bullocking types to manhandle opponents and overwhelm them with power, but winning, or at a minimum halving, a contest is the bare minimum requirement.
Last season, Daniher won 26 per cent of his one-on-ones, while Hipwood won 21 per cent, ranking them 31st and 43rd in the AFL respectively.
TRADE HUB All the latest player movement news
Brisbane would love those numbers right now.
For comparison, McStay was ranked sixth in 2022, winning 37 per cent of his one-on-ones.
For context, Hipwood was a key figure in Brisbane winning two do-or-die finals last season, kicking three goals against Richmond and then four (from 17 disposals) to help break the MCG hoodoo against Melbourne.
Daniher was playing his best football since his 2017 All-Australian season in the first seven rounds of last year before hurting his shoulder, but after having off-season surgery, that is no longer an issue.
The pair can have an influence, but aside from Daniher's four-goal performance against the Demons in round two, have failed to do so thus far.
Perhaps of equal concern to Fagan and his coaching staff is what happens when Brisbane doesn't win the ball inside its forward 50.
"The stats will tell you last week and the stats will tell you this season we haven't been very good when the ball hits the ground in our forward line," Fagan said on Wednesday.
Brisbane forward efficiency |
2022 |
2023 |
Score per inside 50 |
4th |
14th |
Goal per inside 50 |
1st |
11th |
Kick inside 50 - retention |
3rd |
16th |
He's not wrong.
Last week against the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane won just three ground balls inside its forward 50, which is the lowest in club history since the stat began being tracked in 1999.
"It's certainly been a focus of ours," Fagan said.
"It hasn't been a weakness of ours in the past. We're looking to get back to our competitive best and instinctive best in those situations."
Daniher was told in an exit meeting last year that to have more impact, he needed to contribute defensively, not just kick goals.
So far, he has averaged 7.0 pressure points a game, which Champion Data defines as poor. Hipwood is above average at 17.9, while McStay is average at 16.9 at his new club.
Brisbane is ranked 16th for retaining kicks inside 50, compared to third last year.
Although it's just three games, the eyes of the football world will be on Brisbane's lanky duo against the Magpies and in coming weeks to see if they can prove Brown, and many others, wrong and have a major influence on taking the Lions to the promised land.