THE BATTLES within the (football) war.
Plenty needs to go right for a team to win an AFL final, so players taking the honours in their individual match-up or positional groups are crucial pieces of the overall puzzle.
AFL.com.au, with help from the competition's official number-cruncher Champion Data, has delved into a key match-up in each of the four games in the opening week of finals.
WEST COAST v ESSENDON
Dual Coleman Medal-winning Eagle Josh Kennedy has a fairly modest history against Essendon, and has kicked two goals or fewer in seven of his past eight matches against all opponents.
Kennedy's managed only 32 goals in 15 career clashes with the Bombers, but he's booted at least three majors in each of his past five outings against them, including 3.5 in round 14 this year. His opponents in that time include Cale Hooker, Michael Hartley, Michael Hurley and Patrick Ambrose, so Essendon's tried a series of options.
There were wild rumours on Monday that Kennedy had suffered an ACL injury, but coach Adam Simpson declared he had just sustained a knock to the shin and was "right to go". Hurley (shoulder) is also on track to play despite his own setback.
Down the other end, West Coast's Brad Sheppard kept Orazio Fantasia to just one disposal – while gathering 11 of his own – in 64 minutes against one another in round 14. Fantasia also had only one touch in a 26-minute stint opposed to Sheppard in round 15, 2016.
Orazio Fantasia needs a big performance for the Dons. Picture: Getty Images
Josh Kennedy by the numbers
STATISTIC | v ESSENDON | 2019 OVERALL | FEWEST SINCE |
Disposals | 11.4 | 8.2 | 2012 |
Marks | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2007 |
Contested marks | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2014 |
Score involvements | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2012 |
Goals | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2012 |
Stats of note
West Coast: Ranked No.3 for marks, averaging 98.4 per match, and have won nine of 10 games when taking 100 or more marks.
Essendon: Ranked No.4 for points scored from defensive-half chains this season at 31.9 points per match.
GEELONG v COLLINGWOOD
Is Rhys Stanley the Brodie Grundy stopper? That's far too extravagant, but the at-times maligned Stanley will be confident after his last contest with the two-time All Australian.
Stanley returned in impressive fashion to the Cats' senior side in round 23, just in time to resume hostilities with Grundy, who he comfortably accounted for in the opening round this year. That was their third meeting but first in almost three seasons. Stanley's aerial presence and greater ball-winning that night came as he also effectively cancelled the Magpie's strengths in clearances and hitouts.
It is debatable who won their showdown in 2016, with the ranking points suggesting Stanley did, although Grundy was impactful on the ground and gathered more possessions. Either way, Geelong won't have the same ruck disadvantage many clubs have against Grundy.
Rhys Stanley has a good record against Brodie Grundy. Picture: AFL Photos
Another one could be Collingwood's Jordan De Goey and Cats defender Jake Kolodjashnij. De Goey had two disposals and a goal in 33 minutes against 'Kola' in round eight, 2018, then four possessions and two majors in 48 minutes opposed to him in round one this year.
| RHYS STANLEY | BRODIE GRUNDY | ||||
STATISTICS | R6, 2015 | R9, 2016 | R1, 2019 | R6, 2015 | R9, 2016 | R1, 2019 |
Match-up minutes | 55.8 | 40.4 | 80.3 | 55.8 | 40.4 | 80.3 |
Disposals | 9 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 9 |
Contested possessions | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
Uncontested possessions | 8 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Groundball-gets | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Clearances | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
Goals | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tackles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Intercept marks | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Intercept possessions | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Marks | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Hitouts | 7 | 6 | 19 | 15 | 3 | 25 |
Hitouts to advantage | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
Ranking points | 40.0 | 47.1 | 92.8 | 62.6 | 27.2 | 42.4 |
Stats of note
Geelong: No.1 for scores per inside 50 (46 per cent) and also No.2 for points from turnover (52.7 per cent).
Collingwood: No.1 for points conceded across the past four matches, at just 54.2 points.
FINALS PREDICTOR Who will win the 2019 premiership?
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY v WESTERN BULLDOGS
This game brings together a large chunk of the AFL's best midfield talent, even with Greater Western Sydney's Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward and Bulldogs Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis on the injury shelf.
Jacob Hopper, who is having a career-best season, hasn't appeared against the Bulldogs since 2017, but is due back from a hamstring injury and could help tip the balance. Only Matt de Boer averages more centre attendances (19.8) for GWS in 2019, and the tagger had to work overtime in the last match-up (27). Hopper was out and Josh Kelly was playing his first game in six weeks, so first-year onballer Jye Caldwell also made 13 centre attendances. It remains to be seen where Toby Greene plays in his return.
Jacob Hopper would be a huge inclusion for the Giants. Picture: AFL Photos
The boys from the Kennel are pouring on the pressure in their forward half, and that's helped them be the No.1 scoring team in the AFL since round 19. However, they're also crushing teams in contested ball (plus-10.4), winning more than 60 extra possessions and scoring at a high rate from clearances (ranked third for differential).
Making this interesting is that when the Giants were up and going through round 14, they ranked No.1 in disposal differential and contested possession differential and second in scores from clearance differential. May the best midfield win.
Stats of note
GWS: The Giants kick the ball more than any other team (234.4 per game) and rank No.1 for scores from centre bounces differential (+6.8)
Western Bulldogs: No.1 for inside 50 differential (+16.3), time in forward half differential (+13:09) and scores from intercept possessions (65.8) across the past four rounds
BRISBANE v RICHMOND
Charlie Cameron is one of the AFL's most exciting players, arguably the best small forward in the game and freshly minted as a maiden All Australian. That said, the versatile Dylan Grimes thrashed him in both their meetings to date.
The usually elusive Lion had a meagre three possessions without a goal in 41 minutes against the Tiger in round four, 2018, while Grimes kept him to five touches and one major on 60 minutes a fortnight ago. In totality, Cameron went goalless in the first of those matches and kicked two goals in the latter.
Both were Richmond victories. Brisbane's record when the former Crow kicks three majors or more in 2019 is 8-1 compared to 8-5 when he slots two or fewer.
Can Charlie Cameron bounce back against Dylan Grimes? Picture: AFL Photos
The Lions will be equally keen to quell gun Tigers forward Jack Riewoldt, who's booted 42 goals in just 15 games (14 wins) against them – his fourth-best record against any club. It's that much harder to do so now that Tom Lynch has joined him.
Charlie Cameron by the numbers
STATISTIC | v RICHMOND | v 2019 FINALISTS |
Disposals | 9.7 | 12.8 |
Goals | 1.3 | 2.0 |
Score assists | 0.5 | 1.4 |
Inside 50s | 2.3 | 3.1 |
Ball-gets inside 50 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
Stats of note
Brisbane: No.1 for points scored from forward half (51.1) and No.2 for time in forward half differential (+4:56)
Richmond: No.1 for points from turnover this season (57.1) also No.2 for intercept possessions won (75.3)