WITH the top four seemingly settled, attention now turns to the logjam in the bottom half of the eight and just beyond.
Three teams - St Kilda, Sydney Swans and Essendon - sit on 42 points separated by percentage, while a surging North Melbourne is ninth, poised to pounce on any slip up.
The critical match is next Saturday night at Etihad Stadium between the Saints and the Kangaroos.
The Roos must win to keep their finals hopes alive. Lose, and the top eight will remain intact, barring a Fremantle miracle.
Collingwood: 1st - played 20, won 19, lost one. Percentage 178.96
To come: Fremantle (Patersons Stadium), Geelong (MCG)
The Pies, albeit with a weakened team, looked flat against the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night. Will a trip west bring about their undoing? Freo, though, is shattered by injury, and it's hard to see the Magpies faltering. Round 24 is intriguing. Both Collingwood and Geelong will be keen not to incur any injuries to key players with the finals looming, so 'general soreness' may get a work out.
Geelong: 2nd - Played 20, won 18, lost two. Percentage 157.67
To come: Sydney Swans (Skilled Stadium) Collingwood (MGC)
The Swans at fortress Skilled Stadium should be a win, and then comes the clash with the Pies. Expect the Cats to face the Hawks in the first round of the finals.
Hawthorn: 3rd - Played 20, won 15, lost four. Percentage 145.31
To come: Western Bulldogs (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
The Hawks parcelled up the double chance with their win over Carlton. Almost certainly they will meet the Cats in the first week of the finals.
West Coast: 4th - Played 20, won 15, lost five. Percentage 126.33
To come: Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Adelaide (Patersons Stadium)
The challenges of the Lions and Crows look more significant than a month ago, but the miracle-working Eagles are now odds-on to finish fourth and play Collingwood in week one of the finals. A loss then would see them host a final in Perth in the second week.
Carlton: 5th - Played 21, won 14, lost six, drawn one. Percentage 133.77
To come: Bye, St Kilda (MCG)
The loss to Hawthorn was a body blow with the bye next week and then a match against a St Kilda side that may have to win to ensure a top-eight finish.
St Kilda: 6th - Played 20, won 10, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 108.37
To come: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (MCG)
The Saints may be sixth, but they appear the most vulnerable - of those teams on 42 points - to a late North Melbourne charge. A win next week will ensure they play finals, but a loss to the Roos means they face the unpleasant prospect of having to beat the Blues in round 24 to stay in the eight.
Sydney Swans: 7th - Played 20, won 10, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 106.13
To come: Geelong (Skilled Stadium), Brisbane Lions (SCG)
The win against St Kilda was a crucial one for the Swans, who can guarantee finals football with one more win. The Lions at home would appear far more likely than beating the Cats in Geelong, but they probably won't need to win either match if St Kilda beats North.
Essendon: 8th - Played 21, won 10, lost 10, drawn one. Percentage 99.67
To come: Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium), Bye
Likewise, the Bombers are almost certainly in if the Saints win next week. The only question then would be which team do they face in the finals. A big win against the woeful Power is an absolute necessity, given their round 24 bye.
North Melbourne: 9th - Played 20, won nine, lost 11. Percentage 104.09
To come: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (Etihad Stadium)
Must win both and hope that St Kilda also slips up against the Blues, or the Swans lose to the Lions, or the Bombers somehow contrive to lose to Port Adelaide. At least part of the equation is in their hands.
Fremantle: 10th - Played 20, won nine, lost 11. Percentage 87.58
To come: Collingwood (Patersons Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Freo needs to win both and have all other results go their way. It won't happen.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs
Three teams - St Kilda, Sydney Swans and Essendon - sit on 42 points separated by percentage, while a surging North Melbourne is ninth, poised to pounce on any slip up.
The critical match is next Saturday night at Etihad Stadium between the Saints and the Kangaroos.
The Roos must win to keep their finals hopes alive. Lose, and the top eight will remain intact, barring a Fremantle miracle.
Collingwood: 1st - played 20, won 19, lost one. Percentage 178.96
To come: Fremantle (Patersons Stadium), Geelong (MCG)
The Pies, albeit with a weakened team, looked flat against the Brisbane Lions on Saturday night. Will a trip west bring about their undoing? Freo, though, is shattered by injury, and it's hard to see the Magpies faltering. Round 24 is intriguing. Both Collingwood and Geelong will be keen not to incur any injuries to key players with the finals looming, so 'general soreness' may get a work out.
Geelong: 2nd - Played 20, won 18, lost two. Percentage 157.67
To come: Sydney Swans (Skilled Stadium) Collingwood (MGC)
The Swans at fortress Skilled Stadium should be a win, and then comes the clash with the Pies. Expect the Cats to face the Hawks in the first round of the finals.
Hawthorn: 3rd - Played 20, won 15, lost four. Percentage 145.31
To come: Western Bulldogs (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
The Hawks parcelled up the double chance with their win over Carlton. Almost certainly they will meet the Cats in the first week of the finals.
West Coast: 4th - Played 20, won 15, lost five. Percentage 126.33
To come: Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Adelaide (Patersons Stadium)
The challenges of the Lions and Crows look more significant than a month ago, but the miracle-working Eagles are now odds-on to finish fourth and play Collingwood in week one of the finals. A loss then would see them host a final in Perth in the second week.
Carlton: 5th - Played 21, won 14, lost six, drawn one. Percentage 133.77
To come: Bye, St Kilda (MCG)
The loss to Hawthorn was a body blow with the bye next week and then a match against a St Kilda side that may have to win to ensure a top-eight finish.
St Kilda: 6th - Played 20, won 10, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 108.37
To come: North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (MCG)
The Saints may be sixth, but they appear the most vulnerable - of those teams on 42 points - to a late North Melbourne charge. A win next week will ensure they play finals, but a loss to the Roos means they face the unpleasant prospect of having to beat the Blues in round 24 to stay in the eight.
Sydney Swans: 7th - Played 20, won 10, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 106.13
To come: Geelong (Skilled Stadium), Brisbane Lions (SCG)
The win against St Kilda was a crucial one for the Swans, who can guarantee finals football with one more win. The Lions at home would appear far more likely than beating the Cats in Geelong, but they probably won't need to win either match if St Kilda beats North.
Essendon: 8th - Played 21, won 10, lost 10, drawn one. Percentage 99.67
To come: Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium), Bye
Likewise, the Bombers are almost certainly in if the Saints win next week. The only question then would be which team do they face in the finals. A big win against the woeful Power is an absolute necessity, given their round 24 bye.
North Melbourne: 9th - Played 20, won nine, lost 11. Percentage 104.09
To come: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (Etihad Stadium)
Must win both and hope that St Kilda also slips up against the Blues, or the Swans lose to the Lions, or the Bombers somehow contrive to lose to Port Adelaide. At least part of the equation is in their hands.
Fremantle: 10th - Played 20, won nine, lost 11. Percentage 87.58
To come: Collingwood (Patersons Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
Freo needs to win both and have all other results go their way. It won't happen.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs
