THE MOMENT for Richmond to stand up and shift the course of the finals race last year came in round 20 in an astonishing come-from-behind win against Brisbane at the MCG.
In 2021, Greater Western Sydney orchestrated one of the season's biggest upsets at GMHBA Stadium in round 21 to drag an injury-depleted team into the top eight against the odds and stay there.
While the top end of the ladder has a habit of feeling set come this point of the season, recent history suggests it is not and the biggest moments of the home and away season are ahead of us as teams deliver on their promise or face their day of reckoning.
It is especially the case in 2023, with just two games separating fifth-placed St Kilda and Fremantle in 13th ahead of the final week of bye rounds.
Geelong replacing Adelaide in the top eight this week is the only change that looks possible to complete the shortened rounds, but more change is almost certain.
For the past six years – and 11 of the last 12 – there has been at least one team like those Tigers of last year and the Giants of 2021 that has come from outside the top eight at the end of round 15 to eventually play finals.
Since 2000, it has been the case in 19 of the 23 completed seasons, with two teams managing the feat in the same season on seven occasions.
Just four times – in 2006, 2009, 2010, 2016 – the ladder proved set (although Port Adelaide and Essendon swapped in and out in 2009).
For every Richmond and GWS that meets its moment in the run home, however, there is a Carlton or St Kilda of 2022 that fails to take its chance (or chances).
For the Blues, it was a month of matches to close the season, including two heartbreaking defeats in rounds 22 and 23, that decided their finals fate.
The Saints were unable to beat an eventual top eight team in their last eight games after round 15, finishing 10th and farewelling coach Brett Ratten.
While the Blues' moment might have passed in 2023, the fifth-placed Saints (8-5) – like nine other clubs that appear to be jockeying for positions five to eight – will face theirs in the run home.
Having gone nine rounds now without stringing back-to-back wins together, maybe it is the Gold Coast road trip in round 18 that proves critical for the Saints, kicking off a run of four very winnable games before a tough finish.
For the sixth-placed Bombers (8-5), their moment could come as soon as Saturday night when they enter Optus Stadium for the second time in four matches and meet an out of form but sure-to-be desperate Fremantle.
Port Adelaide (MCG), Adelaide (Marvel Stadium), Geelong (GMHBA Stadium) and the Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium) follow for the Bombers, so these could prove a very important four points.
In round 21, the seventh-placed Bulldogs (8-6) take on the ninth-placed Richmond (6-7) on a Friday night at Marvel Stadium. It's one worth pencilling in now for the finals aspirants, with only five points separating the teams in a thrilling Bulldogs win in round four.
Sandwiched between them on the ladder right now is eighth-placed Adelaide (7-6). The Crows won't have a better opportunity to make a statement than against Collingwood on Sunday at the MCG, where they haven't played since round two last year.
Matthew Nicks' men were beaten by a solitary point when the teams met on the Crows' home turf in round seven, and just five points in round 18 last season, again at Adelaide Oval.
Like the Crows, this coming round looms large for Geelong with a home clash against Melbourne. The Cats also host Port Adelaide in round 21 at GMHBA Stadium, where the Power haven't won since 2007, when Ken Hinkley was in charge of the Cats' forward line as an assistant coach.
Finals are now less likely than likely for Greater Western Sydney, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Carlton, but the door isn't closed yet. Back-to-back wins can change the complexion of a season dramatically this year.
Just as Carlton fell dramatically last season and Richmond rose late, we'd be foolish to rule out a charge from outside the top eight in a run home that promises plenty.
