The closest football season in any competition in recent memory reaches a crescendo this weekend with only one team locked into the rebel VFLW top six and eight others still eyeing off the remaining five positions in the last round.
While North Melbourne needs to win handsomely to make up a percentage gap, the situation for everyone from second-placed Collingwood to eighth-placed Carlton is simple – win and you’re in.
Where in that top six each club could finish, including ladder-leader Port Melbourne, remains an absolute lottery with results of all six matches to have a say and percentage guaranteed to play a big role in who banks the all-important double chance and home finals in the first two weeks.
So, let’s try to break it down.
1st, 9-4, 134.6%
STREAK: Won 4
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Essendon (3, ETU Stadium); def Darebin (41, La Trobe University); def Western Bulldogs (4, ETU Stadium); def Geelong (7, Deakin University); lost Williamstown (4, ETU Stadium)
THIS WEEK: Casey Demons (Casey Fields)
IF THEY WIN:
1st
IF THEY LOSE:
1st if Collingwood loses and none of Williamstown, Box Hill Hawks or Southern Saints win and make up the percentage deficit.
2nd if Collingwood wins and none of Williamstown, Box Hill or Southern Saints win and make up the percentage deficit; 3rd if one of them do, 4th if two do.
2nd if Collingwood loses and one of Williamstown, Box Hill or Southern Saints win and make up the percentage deficit, 3rd if two do.
FINAL WORD: The only team guaranteed to play finals after finishing 10th last season. The equation is simple. Win and finish top, lose and face the prospect of four sudden death weeks to chase the ultimate prize. And with the only Sunday game, they will know exactly what they need.
PREDICTION: 10-4 (1st)
2nd, 8-5, 131.6%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Geelong (40, AIA Centre); lost Carlton (8, AIA Centre); def Darebin (59, Genis Steel Oval); lost Western Bulldogs (16, ETU Stadium); lost Southern Saints (5, Victoria Park).
THIS WEEK: North Melbourne (Arden Street Oval)
IF THEY WIN:
1st if Port Melbourne loses and none of Williamstown, Box Hill and Southern Saints win and make up the percentage deficit; 2nd if one does, 3rd if two do.
2nd if Port Melbourne wins and none of Williamstown, Box Hill or Southern Saints win and make up the percentage deficit; 3rd if one does; 4th if two do.
IF THEY LOSE:
4th if one of Essendon, Carlton or North Melbourne win and don’t make up the percentage deficit; 5th if one does, 6th if two do, 7th if three do.
FINAL WORD: The double chance is theirs for the taking. All they have to do is beat an in-form Kangaroos team with nothing to lose. The banana skin could take them all the way from second to Mad Monday.
PREDICTION: 9-5 (2nd)
3rd, 8-5, 126.9%
STREAK: Won 5
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Southern Saints (4, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def Western Bulldogs (25, DSV Stadium); def Box Hill Hawks (3, Box Hill City Oval); def Carlton (38, DSV Stadium); def Port Melbourne (4, ETU Stadium).
THIS WEEK: Geelong (DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN:
1st if Port Melbourne and Collingwood lose, or Collingwood wins and Williamstown makes up the percentage deficit to both.
2nd if Port Melbourne loses, Collingwood wins and Williamstown makes up the percentage deficit to Port Melbourne only; otherwise 3rd.
2nd if Port Melbourne wins and Collingwood loses, or wins and Williamstown makes up the percentage deficit.
3rd if Port Melbourne and Collingwood win and the winner of Box Hill v Southern Saints doesn’t make up the percentage deficit to Williamstown; otherwise 4th.
IF THEY LOSE:
5th if Essendon and Carlton lose, 6th if one wins, 7th if both win. Lower those positions by one if North Melbourne wins and makes up the percentage deficit.
FINAL WORD: Eight wins from past 10 matches, including five in a row. A double chance beckons if one of the top two slip up, but a defeat is likely to mean it all amounts to nothing given the other fixtures in Round 14.
PREDICTION: 9-5 (3rd)
4th, 7-4-2, 119.5%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Casey Demons (27, Casey Fields); drew Geelong (Deakin University); lost Williamstown (3, Box Hill City Oval); def North Melbourne (22, Arden Street Oval); def Carlton (1, Box Hill City Oval).
THIS WEEK: Southern Saints (Box Hill City Oval)
IF THEY WIN:
1st if Port Melbourne, Collingwood and Williamstown all lose; 2nd if one wins, 3rd if two win, 4th if all three win and they don’t make up the percentage deficit to either Collingwood or Williamstown.
IF THEY LOSE:
5th if Essendon and Carlton both lose, 6th if one wins, 7th if both win. Lower those positions by one if Geelong wins. Lower them by another one if North Melbourne wins and makes up the percentage deficit.
FINAL WORD: Those two draws could come back to bite, with a defeat this weekend almost certain to end their season. However, a win could secure a double chance.
PREDICTION: 8-4-2 (4th)
5th, 8-5, 115.3%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Williamstown (4, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost North Melbourne (24, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def Carlton (6, IKON Park); def Casey Demons (8, RSEA Park); def Collingwood (5, Victoria Park).
THIS WEEK: Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval)
IF THEY WIN:
1st if Port Melbourne, Collingwood and Williamstown all lose; 2nd if one wins, 3rd if two win, 4th if all three win and they don’t make up the percentage deficit to either Collingwood or Williamstown.
IF THEY LOSE:
5th if Essendon and Carlton both lose, 6th if one wins, 7th if both win. Lower those positions by one if Geelong wins. Lower them by another one if North Melbourne wins and makes up the percentage deficit.
FINAL WORD: A game clear on top with three rounds to go, but back-to-back home losses mean they need to beat Box Hill away just to play finals. And the Hawks beat them by five goals earlier in the season. Top two is still a possibility if things go the other way.
PREDICTION: 8-6 (7th)
6th, 7-5-1, 150.2%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Collingwood (40, AIA Centre); drew Box Hill Hawks (Deakin University); lost Casey Demons (21, Deakin University); lost Port Melbourne (7, Deakin University); def Essendon (2, NEC Hangar).
THIS WEEK: Williamstown (DSV Stadium)
IF THEY WIN:
4th unless Essendon wins and makes up the percentage deficit, 5th if it does.
IF THEY LOSE:
6th if Essendon, Carlton and North Melbourne all lose, 7th if one wins, 8th if two win, 9th if all three win.
FINAL WORD: Seem to have fallen off the cliff and now must win to save their season against the form team of the competition. Given they have never lost to the Seagulls, that is achievable.
PREDICTION: 7-6-1 (8th)
7th, 7-5-1, 101.1%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Port Melbourne (3, ETU Stadium); def Casey Demons (5, Casey Fields); lost North Melbourne (8, NEC Hangar); def Darebin (34, La Trobe University); lost Geelong (2, NEC Hangar).
THIS WEEK: Western Bulldogs (Windy Hill)
IF THEY WIN:
4th if Geelong wins and Essendon makes up the percentage deficit to the Cats; otherwise 5th.
5th if Geelong loses.
IF THEY LOSE:
7th if Carlton and North Melbourne lose; 8th if one wins, 9th if both win.
FINAL WORD: Only need to sink the Bulldogs to have a chance to defend their premiership – and nobody would want to play them.
PREDICTION: 8-5-1 (5th)
8th, 7-6, 132.8%
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Western Bulldogs (29, ETU Stadium); def Collingwood (8, AIA Centre); lost Southern Saints (6, IKON Park); lost Williamstown (38, DSV Stadium); lost Box Hill Hawks (1, Box Hill City Oval).
THIS WEEK: Darebin Falcons (IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN:
5th if Essendon loses, otherwise 6th. Lower those positions by one if North Melbourne wins and makes up the percentage deficit to the Blues.
IF THEY LOSE:
8th if North Melbourne loses, 9th if the Kangaroos win.
FINAL WORD: A maiden finals berth is assured if they don’t slip up against the wooden spooners, unless Box Hill and Southern Saints draw.
PREDICTION: 8-6 (6th)
9th, 7-6, 104.3%
STREAK: Won 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Darebin (49, Arden Street Oval); def Southern Saints (24, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def Essendon (8 (NEC Hangar); lost Box Hill Hawks (22, Arden Street Oval); lost Casey Demons (13, Casey Fields).
THIS WEEK: Collingwood (Arden Street Oval).
IF THEY WIN: 4th if Geelong, Essendon and Carlton all lose and they make up the percentage deficit to Collingwood and the loser of Box Hill v Southern Saints; 5th if one of those results don't happen, 6th if two don't, 7th if three don't, 8th if four don't, 9th if none happen.
IF THEY LOSE: 9th
FINAL WORD: Given Essendon and Carlton are likely to win, they need to beat Collingwood by roughly 46 points to overtake the Magpies’ percentage. Catching Williamstown is just as hard given its percentage isn’t tied to North’s.
PREDICTION: 7-7 (9th)
10th, 5-8, 104.9%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Box Hill Hawks (27, Casey Fields); lost Essendon (5, Casey Fields); def Geelong (21, Deakin University); lost Southern Saints (8, RSEA Park); def North Melbourne (13, Casey Fields).
THIS WEEK: Port Melbourne (Casey Fields)
IF THEY WIN: 10th
IF THEY LOSE: 10th
FINAL WORD: A disappointing season comes to an end, but they can go out on a high and tip Port Melbourne out of the double chance. That is entirely possible.
PREDICTION: 5-9 (10th)
11th, 3-10, 86.4%
STREAK: Lost 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Carlton (29, ETU Stadium); lost Williamstown (25, DSV Stadium); lost Port Melbourne (4, ETU Stadium); def Collingwood (16, ETU Stadium); def Darebin (34, ETU Stadium).
THIS WEEK: Essendon (Windy Hill)
IF THEY WIN: 11th
IF THEY LOSE: 11th
FINAL WORD: Knocking the reigning premiers out of the finals would be like winning a flag, but it seems they played their grand final against Collingwood in Round 10.
PREDICTION: 3-11 (11th)
12th, 0-13, 22.8%
STREAK: Lost 13
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost North Melbourne (49, Arden Street Oval); lost Port Melbourne (41, La Trobe University); lost Collingwood (59, Genis Steel Oval); lost Essendon (34, La Trobe University); lost Western Bulldogs (34, ETU Stadium).
THIS WEEK: Carlton (IKON Park)
IF THEY WIN: 12th
IF THEY LOSE: 12th
FINAL WORD: Can they spoil Carlton’s finals dream? Highly unlikely.
PREDICTION: 0-14 (12th)
