Head to head: Sydney Swans 64 wins, Hawthorn 80 wins, two draws
Last time: Hawthorn 10.19 (79) d Sydney Swans 11.11 (77), round 10, 2010 at MCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Sydney Swans
Craig Bird (foot) - test
Craig Bolton (achilles) - 3 weeks
Daniel Bradshaw (knee) - 1-2 weeks
Jake Orreal (back) - season
Lewis Roberts-Thomson (hamstring) - 1 week
Mark Seaby (ankle) - season
Nick Smith (hamstring) - 1 week
Kristin Thornton (hamstring) - test
Hawthorn
Max Bailey (knee) - indefinite
FORM
Sydney Swans: LWWLL
Hawthorn: WLWDL
SUMMARY
Both these sides are tucked away in the bottom half of the eight and will be scrambling to finish as high as possible on the ladder. The Hawks are carrying in more form than the Swans but last week’s loss to Port Adelaide would have caused some concern. Cyril Rioli’s two-week ban added suspension to insult as the talented young Hawk was showing some good form.
That is more than can be said for most of the Swans side, which has looked substandard in the last two losses to Geelong and Melbourne. Adam Goodes is the notable exception but Brett Kirk has been below par as his career draws to a close and Ryan O’Keefe and Jude Bolton have been only marginally better.
The Swans are out of favour with the experts at the moment but they showed enough early in the year to suggest they can be a force. Games like this will go a long way to identifying if they are contenders or pretenders.That is more than can be said for most of the Swans side, which has looked substandard in the last two losses to Geelong and Melbourne. Adam Goodes is the notable exception but Brett Kirk has been below par as his career draws to a close and Ryan O’Keefe and Jude Bolton have been only marginally better.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Ryan O’Keefe has been hot and cold this year and needs to step up if his side is to have any chance of making or having an effect in the finals. He very nearly became a Hawk two years ago and would be keen to show them why they should have pursued him harder in the 2008 trade week.
All season long Jarryd Roughead has been closely analysed because of his wasteful kicking for goal. It has been a source of frustration to everyone involved with the Hawks, least of all Roughead himself who is keen to return to the form of 2008. Sometimes it only takes one game to recapture form and this could be it.
QUESTION MARKS
Are the Swans good enough to make finals? They’ve copped a bit of stick lately from some suggestions that only six sides deserve to be in the finals and they are not one of them. But that is a case of not seeing the forest for the trees. The Swans were excellent in the first part of the year and while they may have dropped off a little in recent times they are still a powerful outfit at their best.
How big a loss is Cyril Rioli? Any side would be disadvantaged at losing a talented player such as Rioli. But he is not necessarily one of the pillars of the side in the way that Sam Mitchell or Luke Hodge are. He can be flashy but inconsistent. His cameos can turn games but the Hawks should be able to cover him.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
The Hawks have been the much better side in the second half of the year and the Swans are in their first real slump for years. Like any good side, they will snap out of it, but might have to wait at least another week for it.
PREDICTION
Hawthorn by 22 points
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The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
