Collingwood's Scott Pendlebury tackles Essendon's Jye Caldwell on Anzac Day, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

THE RACE for finals in 2023 looms as one of the tightest in almost three decades.

With seven rounds to go, just 10 points separate Melbourne in fourth and Richmond in 10th, while even the fourth-last Swans can’t yet be completely ruled out of playing finals this year.

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Despite its disappointing season, Sydney sits just two wins outside the top eight heading into round 18. Since the final eight was introduced in 1994, only once before has the team in 15th spot been within two games of finals so late in the season.

It means there's a host of blockbuster games in the final seven rounds of the home and away season, with plenty of eight-point games that are set to shape the race for the top eight and a double chance.

Here's a closer look at some of the most important games to look forward to in the run home.

Round 18

Geelong v Essendon at GMHBA Stadium

The Bombers are currently flying high in fifth spot but face a crucial clash against the Cats at their fortress in Geelong. Win and Brad Scott's side could move to the edge of the top four, lose and they could drop out of the eight entirely by the end of the weekend. With spots so tight, the Cats could slip as low as ninth with a loss.

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Adelaide v GWS at Adelaide Oval

The Giants have slipped under the radar of the entire competition and could find themselves in the top eight by the end of the weekend. Their four-game winning streak will go on the line against the Crows, who they beat in round one but who have been almost unbeatable at home in 2023. The pressure is rising on the Crows, who could drop to as low as 12th if they lose this one.

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Luke Pedlar and Jacob Wehr contest the ball in R1, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

Round 19

Essendon v Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium

There's a chance these two will be separated by percentage only heading into this clash, making it a classic eight-point game. The Bombers have lost eight of their past nine against the Bulldogs but will be in prime spot for finals if they can buck the trend here, particularly with games against Sydney, West Coast and North Melbourne to follow.

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Brisbane v Geelong at the Gabba

The Lions are all but locked in for finals, but an all-important top-four finish – and the chance of a home qualifying final – will be determined by games like these. A loss to Melbourne at the MCG a week earlier would make them even more desperate to continue their hot form at home. The Cats will have every team spooked in the run home, but with six of seven games against teams currently in the top eight, they can't afford any slip-ups.

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Jed Bewes of Geelong and Charlie Cameron of Brisbane contest the ball in R14, 2021. Picture: AFL Photos

Round 20

Adelaide v Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

As if Showdowns don't have enough on the line already, this one should have plenty of extra spice. The Crows face a tricky fortnight against the Giants (home) and Demons (away) before this clash so their season may well be on the line against the fiercest rivals. This game will come a week after the Power's top-of-the-table match with the Pies, making it a pivotal fortnight that could shape their chances of hanging onto a home qualifying final.

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Richmond v Melbourne at the MCG

If we expect the Tigers to bank wins against the Eagles and Hawks in the next fortnight, their clash against the Demons on the Sunday afternoon of round 20 looms as season-defining. The Dees have a tricky fortnight coming up against the Lions and Crows, both at home, but a slip up there will have them desperate to right the ship against a Tigers side who should be in the eight at the start of the round.

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Richmond's Dustin Martin and Melbourne's Judd McVee during R6, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

Round 21

Western Bulldogs v Richmond at Marvel Stadium

A classic eight-point game that could determine the finals chances of both teams, the Tigers will have to 'travel' to their least favourite venue in the competition. The Bulldogs got the job done against the Tigers in round four by less than a kick and it should be another tight one against two teams that are evenly matched.

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Geelong v Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium

A challenging run of three games for Port Adelaide concludes with a road trip to the Cattery in round 21 to face a Geelong side that may well be scrapping to keep their September hopes alive. The Power face the Pies and Crows before this one, so could very well be riding a two-game losing streak at the wrong end of the season. Whatever happens in the next three weeks, there should be plenty to play for here.

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Round 22

St Kilda v Richmond at Marvel Stadium

Richmond's season may well be all but over by this point, with crucial games against the Demons and Bulldogs in the fortnight leading in. But a win in one or both of those means they will have plenty of momentum to face the Saints, who themselves have a relatively easy run against the Suns, Kangaroos, Hawks and Blues before this monster clash. Could be season-defining.

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Dan Butler celebrates a goal during the round 14 Richmond and St Kilda clash at the MCG on June 17, 2023. Picture: Getty Images

Round 23

St Kilda v Geelong at Marvel Stadium

It's hard to predict exactly where these two sides will be come the penultimate round of the season, but there's likely to be plenty on the line in the race for the eight. With a trip to the Gabba to face the Lions in the final round, the Saints will be desperate to take advantage of their home advantage here. Just how well the Cats will be travelling after consecutive games against the Power and Magpies will have a huge say in how this one will play out.

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Round 24

Essendon v Collingwood at the MCG

Collingwood taking on a fierce rival in the final round of the season at the MCG with finals on the line? Sounds familiar. Bomber fans will be hoping desperately to avoid the heartbreak the Magpies handed to the Blues last year and, with six weeks still to go, just where they sit on the ladder at this point is anyone's guess. If all goes well from here, the Bombers could even be fighting for top four against the flying Pies, although a lean month could easily see them clinging onto a spot in the eight.

Western Bulldogs v Geelong at Marvel Stadium

Separated by just two points on the ladder with seven rounds to go, it's hard to know just where these two teams will be coming into the final round of the season. The Dogs should be flying high after games against the Hawks and Eagles, while the Cats could already be out of finals contention by this point. But it'd be a brave soul to suggest there won't be plenty to play for here.