IT IS shaping as the tightest finals race in more than two decades.
Just eight points separates last year's Grand Finalists – fifth-placed Geelong and 14th-placed Sydney – after round 18.
With six rounds to go, there has only ever been one tighter race at this point of a season in the final eight era (1994 onwards) and that came in 1997.
Remarkably, that campaign 26 years ago saw only one change to the top eight from that round.
Collingwood and Port Adelaide are flying in the top two in 2023 and Brisbane and Melbourne look relatively secure just behind them.
But the remaining finals spots are up for grabs.
The Magpies and Power meet in a monster clash on Saturday night and they have proven to be the League's two best teams so far in 2023.
Port Adelaide holds an incredible 8-1 win-loss record over the other sides in the top eight, while Collingwood is 5-2.
Geelong (4-2), Brisbane (4-3) and Melbourne (4-4) are the only other teams with at least four wins against teams currently in the finals spots.
The Cats, described by coach Chris Scott as 'the danger', have a League-high five games remaining against top-eight sides, while the Demons have none.
The Lions, Power and Magpies, plus St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, are awaiting Geelong in the final six rounds.
Melbourne, meanwhile, still has encounters against North Melbourne and Hawthorn to come, although Adelaide, Richmond, Carlton and Sydney all loom as tricky opponents.
Of the current top eight, Essendon (1-7) and the Bulldogs (1-6) have the worst records against teams currently sitting in the finals positions.
The winner of Friday night's blockbuster at Marvel Stadium is unlikely to see that record improve, given the loser will likely finish the round outside the eight.
The Bombers, Bulldogs, Saints and Power have just two games each left against teams in the eight.
In the chasing pack, Richmond (four), Greater Western Sydney (three), Carlton (three) and Adelaide (three) have tougher runs home, while Sydney (two) and Gold Coast (one) have an advantage.
| Record v current top eight | |
| Port Adelaide | 8-1 (110.50%) |
| Collingwood | 5-2 (115.34) |
| Geelong | 4-2 (115.71) |
| Brisbane | 4-3 (107.98) |
| Melbourne | 4-4 (102.95) |
| Adelaide | 3-5 (101.19) |
| Fremantle | 3-5 (83.59) |
| Gold Coast | 3-6 (77.24) |
| St Kilda | 2-4 (101.62) |
| Richmond | 2-6 (87.46) |
| Carlton | 2-6 (86.24) |
| Greater Western Sydney | 2-5 (80.91) |
| Hawthorn | 2-5 (67.47) |
| Sydney | 1-1-6 (71.71) |
| Essendon | 1-7 (79.22) |
| Western Bulldogs | 1-6 (74.80) |
| North Melbourne | 0-8 (58.17) |
| West Coast | 0-7 (55.33) |
| Games left v current top eight |
Games left v rest |
|
| Geelong | 5 | 1 |
| Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn | 4 | 2 |
| Brisbane, Greater Western Sydney, Carlton, Adelaide, Fremantle, North Melbourne |
3 | 3 |
| Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Sydney, West Coast |
2 | 4 |
| Gold Coast | 1 | 5 |
| Melbourne | 0 | 6 |
