There are five rounds to go before the Smithy’s VFL finals and the permutations remain many and varied from the top of the ladder all the way down to the bottom.

Fifteen teams can mathematically still make the finals, even if a couple of those need other results to go their way to make it happen.

Let’s try to unpick what might happen in the next month.

1st, 12-2, 178.1%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Frankston (107, Heritage Bank Stadium); lost Essendon (1, Windy Hill); def Box Hill Hawks (64, Heritage Bank Stadium); def Northern Bullants (122, Genis Steel Oval); Bye; def Port Melbourne (64, ETU Stadium).
TO COME: GWS Giants (Manuka Oval); Brisbane Lions (Heritage Bank Stadium); Bye; Sydney (SCG); Carlton (Heritage Bank Stadium).
SUMMARY: A shock loss to Essendon hasn’t affected the Suns’ hold on top spot yet, but it leaves them vulnerable should there be another slip up. The way they bounced back against Frankston was nothing short of a muscle flex. The QClash in Round 19 could decide whether they win the minor premiership or miss the top two altogether.
PREDICTION: 16-2 (1st)

2nd, 12-2, 166.7%
STREAK: Won 11
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Northern Bullants (144, Avalon Airport Oval); def Port Melbourne (23, ETU Stadium); def Sandringham (76, Avalon Airport Oval); Bye; def Carlton (6, Avalon Airport Oval); def Richmond (45, Swinburne Centre).
TO COME: Frankston (Avalon Airport Oval); North Melbourne (Arden Street Oval); Collingwood (Avalon Airport Oval); Bye; Sydney (Tramway Oval).
SUMMARY: Another merciless display against the Bullants last week made it 11 wins in a row and grabbed a spot in the top two for the first time this season. The Tigers will start strong favourites in three of their last four games and could secure a top-two spot come finals if they can see off the dangerous North Melbourne at Arden Street Oval in Round 19.
PREDICTION: 16-2 (2nd)

3rd, 11-2-1, 171.6%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Northern Bullants (128, Genis Steel Oval); lost Richmond 1 (Brighton Homes Arena); drew Sandringham (0, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def Sydney (111, Brighton Homes Arena); lost Box Hill Hawks (19, Box Hill City Oval).
TO COME: Geelong (Brighton Homes Arena); Gold Coast Suns (Heritage Bank Stadium); Bye; Williamstown (Brighton Homes Arena); Casey Demons (Casey Fields).
SUMMARY: A month off the boil looks set to cost the Lions a second home final unless they can knock off the Suns at Heritage Bank Stadium in Round 19, although they may still need to beat the reigning premiers on the road in Round 22 as well to grab that top-two berth. No guarantee to hang onto a double chance either, although they should handle their two home games.
PREDICTION: 13-4-1 (5th)

4th, 11-3, 130.5%
STREAK: Won 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def North Melbourne (5, Arden Street Oval); def GWS Giants (14, Giants Stadium); def Port Melbourne (23, Box Hill City Oval); lost Gold Coast Suns (64, Heritage Bank Stadium); Bye; def Brisbane Lions (19, Box Hill City Oval).
TO COME: Richmond (Swinburne Centre); Sandringham (Box Hill City Oval); Bye; Footscray Bulldogs (Box Hill City Oval); Frankston (Kinetic Stadium).
SUMMARY: The Hawks’ comeback win over North Melbourne is worth its weight in gold and a double chance is now theirs for the taking, given they will start favourites in all four matches to come. Richmond away and Footscray at home appear to be the dangers but secure those and they will make the top four.
PREDICTION: 15-3 (3rd)

5th, 10-4, 133.1%
STREAK: Won 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Sandringham (34, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def GWS Giants (96, Casey Fields); def Geelong (40, GMHBA Stadium); Bye; lost Collingwood (14, Casey Fields); def Southport (1, Fankhauser Reserve).
TO COME: Coburg (Piranha Park); Williamstown (Casey Fields); Bye; Carlton (IKON Park); Brisbane Lions (Casey Fields).
SUMMARY: The reigning premiers are just ticking along nicely under the radar and if they can secure that double chance they will take a power of stopping in September. Should get the job done this week and will start favourites in each of the last three, although they all loom as danger games if the Demons are slightly off the boil. Round 22 against the Lions looms as a top-four qualifier.
PREDICTION: 14-4 (4th)

6th, 10-5, 125.8%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Box Hill Hawks 5 (Arden Street Oval); def Geelong (43, GMHBA Stadium); def Williamstown (53, Arden Street Oval); Bye; def Coburg (30, Piranha Park); def GWS (52, Arden Street Oval).
TO COME: Bye; Werribee (Arden Street Oval); Footscray Bulldogs (ETU Stadium); Bye; Richmond (Swinburne Centre)
SUMMARY: A wonderful run of six straight wins ended in thrilling fashion last week, and with it probably went their top-four hopes. All three games to come are challenging and they probably need to win two to hold onto a top-six spot, but they look likely to have done enough to secure a place in the finals.
PREDICTION: 11-7 (7th)

7th, 9-4, 115.2%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Southport (10, DSV Stadium); lost North Melbourne (53, Arden Street Oval); Bye; lost Footscray (30, DSV Stadium); def Northern Bullants (75, DSV Stadium); def Box Hill Hawks (15, Box Hill City Oval).
TO COME: Essendon (DSV Stadium); Casey Demons (Casey Fields); Richmond (DSV Stadium); Brisbane Lions (Brighton Homes Arena); Sandringham (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval).
SUMMARY: Having an extra two games in hand on the Kangaroos looms as a blessing for the Seagulls, although they still have two daunting challenges to come in trips to the Demons and Lions, while they don’t have a good recent record at Zebra Park. Ben Jolley’s record-breaking game this week should be the easiest of what remains, but the Bombers have won two in a row and can’t be underestimated.
PREDICTION: 12-6 (6th)

8th, 8-5-1, 98.1%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Southport (13, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Sydney (21, Swinburne Centre); def Brisbane Lions (1, Brighton Homes Arena); Bye; def Sandringham (32, Swinburne Centre); lost Werribee (45, Swinburne Centre).
TO COME: Box Hill Hawks (Swinburne Centre); Bye; Williamstown (DSV Stadium); Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium); North Melbourne (Swinburne Centre).
SUMMARY: How do you get a read on the Tigers? Two brilliant wins in Queensland split by a horror home loss to Sydney in the past three weeks means they have their challenges in front of them. They play three finals contenders in the last four games and likely need to win two games to make the top 10. While they will start favourite against Port Melbourne, that means landing a home win against a higher-ranked opponent … or sinking the Seagulls at Point Gellibrand.
PREDICTION: 9-8-1 (11th)

9th, 8-6, 121.0%
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Coburg (52, Piranha Park); def Northern Bullants (85, IKON Park); Bye; lost Werribee (6, Avalon Airport Oval); def Essendon (31, IKON Park); def Frankston (3, IKON Park).
TO COME: Port Melbourne (IKON Park); Collingwood (Victoria Park); Bye; Casey Demons (IKON Park); Gold Coast Suns (Heritage Bank Stadium).
SUMMARY: The Blues’ fate remains in their own hands, but they will have well and truly earned a finals berth if they get there, given they still face games against arch-rival Collingwood, plus the reigning premiers and the flag favourites. They’ll only start favourites in one of those, so they will need to take care of business against the Borough this week and then grab an upset to guarantee a finals berth.
PREDICTION: 9-9 (12th)

10th, 8-6, 105.9%
STREAK: Won 6
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Sydney (62, Tramway Oval); def Collingwood (20, Avalon Airport Oval); def Coburg (32, DSV Stadium); Bye; def Williamstown (30, DSV Stadium); def Frankston (19, Kinetic Stadium).
TO COME: Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); Bye; North Melbourne (ETU Stadium); Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval); Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium).
SUMMARY: The Bulldogs are on a roll after a slow start to the year and will be confident of getting to September on a 10-match winning streak, although their last three games are all challenging if they are not switched on. Could easily win all four but could just as easily drop those last three and miss the finals, which would sting given how hard they’ve worked to get back into contention.
PREDICTION: 11-7 (8th)

11th, 8-6, 88.1%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Frankston (1, Kinetic Stadium); lost Box Hill Hawks (14, Giants Stadium); lost Casey Demons (96, Casey Fields); Bye; def Southport (49, Vailo Community Centre); lost North Melbourne (52, Arden Street Oval); lost Richmond (2, Giants Stadium).
TO COME: Gold Coast Suns (Manuka Oval); Bye; Sydney (Giants Stadium); Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); Geelong (GMHBA Stadium).
SUMMARY: Another team that can go into their last three games with plenty of confidence. Will need to play a lot better than they did last week if they are to block out the Suns, but they will start strong favourites against arch-rival Sydney (although that is a banana skin) and the Bullants, meaning their fate could come down to a trip to Geelong in Round 22 – a venue where their AFL team has already won this year.
PREDICTION: 10-8 (10th)

12th, 7-6, 112.0%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Footscray Bulldogs (20, Avalon Airport Oval); def Frankston (95, Kinetic Stadium); def Sydney (23, AIA Centre); Bye; def Casey Demons (14, Casey Fields); def Northern Bullants (51, Genis Steel Oval).
TO COME: Sandringham (AIA Centre); Carlton (Victoria Park); Werribee (Avalon Airport Oval); Geelong (Victoria Park); Southport (AIA Centre).
SUMMARY: Were in terrific form before slipping up early and not being able to hang on late against the Bulldogs a fortnight ago. Having five games to go when some other clubs have three means their fate remains in their own hands. Three gets them in the 10, but two probably won’t be enough.
PREDICTION: 10-8 (9th)

13th, 6-7-1, 75.0%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Essendon (10, GMHBA Stadium); lost North Melbourne (43, GMHBA Stadium); def Sydney (8, SCG); lost Casey Demons (40, GMHBA Stadium); def Frankston (2, GMHBA Stadium).
TO COME: Brisbane Lions (Brighton Homes Arena); Northern Bullants (GMHBA Stadium); Bye; Collingwood (Victoria Park); GWS Giants (GMHBA Stadium).
SUMMARY: The Cats have been a bit inconsistent, especially lately with five losses in their past seven games – and that is likely to cost them a spot in the finals given they possibly need to win all four remaining games to make it. Given this week presents a trip to Queensland to face the Lions, the odds are against them, although they will start favourites in their two home games at least.
PREDICTION: 8-9-1 (14th)

14th, 6-9, 112.1%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Richmond (13, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Williamstown (10, DSV Stadium); Bye; def Coburg (40, Fankhauser Reserve); lost GWS Giants (49, Vailo Community Centre); def Port Melbourne (24, Fankhauser Reserve).
TO COME: Bye; Frankston (Kinetic Stadium); Essendon (Fankhauser Reserve); Bye; Collingwood (AIA Centre).
SUMMARY: Injuries hurt the Sharks throughout the first half of the year, but their home loss to Richmond last week could be the hammer blow to their finals hopes. With only three matches to go, they realistically need to win all three (which they are very capable of doing) and still will rely on other results going their way to sneak into 10th. It doesn’t look good.
PREDICTION: 9-9 (13th)

15th, 5-9, 89.4%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Werribee (23, ETU Stadium); lost Box Hill Hawks (23, Box Hill City Oval); def Essendon (53, ETU Stadium); Bye; lost Southport (24, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Gold Coast Suns (64, ETU Stadium).
TO COME: Carlton (IKON Park); Coburg (ETU Stadium); Bye; Richmond (ETU Stadium); Footscray Bulldogs (ETU Stadium).
SUMMARY: The Borough’s situation is almost identical to that of the Sharks, although they still have one extra game reaming that they need to win to be a chance of getting to September. All their games are winnable, with three of them being at home, but none are more important than this week against the Blues on the road.
PREDICTION: 6-10 (15th)

16th, 4-10, 82.9%
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Geelong (10, GMHBA Stadium); Bye; def Gold Coast Suns (1, Windy Hill); lost Port Melbourne (53, ETU Stadium); Bye; lost Carlton (31, IKON Park); lost North Melbourne (11, NEC Hangar); lost Box Hill Hawks (47, NEC Hangar).
TO COME: Williamstown (DSV Stadium); Sydney (Windy Hill); Southport (Fankhauser Reserve); Bye; Coburg (Windy Hill).
SUMMARY: The Bombers are building a bit of momentum – like last year when they blew their finals hopes early before charging back late to cause some problems to wannabe finalists. Will start favourites to win their two home games, while they have no fears travelling to Southport, where they have a two-point loss and a victory in the past two seasons.
PREDICTION: 6-10 (16th)

17th, 3-10-1, 78.7%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Casey Demons (34, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost Werribee (76, Avalon Airport Oval); drew Brisbane Lions (0, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost Richmond (32, Swinburne Centre); lost Sydney (3, Tramway Oval).
TO COME: Collingwood (AIA Centre); Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval); Northern Bullants (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); Bye; Williamstown (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval).
SUMMARY: The Zebras have been competitive in their past two home games against strong opposition and will be keen to claim a scalp or two to finish off the season. With three games against finals contenders, including two against clubs fighting for the bottom of the top 10, they have a golden opportunity to play finals spoilers.
PREDICTION: 4-13-1 (17th)

18th, 3-11, 68.6%
STREAK: Lost 7
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost GWS Giants (1, Kinetic Stadium); lost Gold Coast Suns (107, Heritage Bank Stadium); lost Collingwood (95, Kinetic Stadium); Bye; lost Geelong (2, GMHBA Stadium); lost Footscray Bulldogs (19, Kinetic Stadium).
TO COME: Werribee (Avalon Airport Oval); Southport (Kinetic Stadium); Bye; Coburg (Piranha Park); Box Hill Hawks (Kinetic Stadium).
SUMMARY: Seven losses in a row doesn’t look that great for the Dolphins, but apart from the losses to Gold Coast and Collingwood, their form hasn’t been as bad as all that. Losses by one, two and three points mean things could have been a whole lot different, while they also pushed Footscray all the way. It’s a tough fixture coming home, but they can beat nearly anyone at Kinetic Stadium, while they will have an eye on breaking their Piranha Park hoodoo.
PREDICTION: 4-18 (18th)

19th, 2-12, 64.7%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Footscray Bulldogs (62, Tramway Oval); def Richmond (21, Swinburne Centre); lost Geelong (8, SCG); lost Collingwood (23, AIA Centre); lost Brisbane Lions (111, Brighton Homes Arena).
TO COME: Bye; Essendon (Windy Hill); GWS Giants (Giants Stadium); Gold Coast Suns (SCG); Werribee (Tramway Oval).
SUMMARY: Before their disappointing display against the Bulldogs last week, the Swans looked like they were getting their act together as the troops returned from injury, with a win and two competitive defeats. They will see the next two games as very winnable, although they won’t start favourites in either of them.
PREDICTION: 2-16 (19th)

20th, 2-12, 46.4%
STREAK: Lost 7
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Werribee (144, Avalon Airport Oval); lost Brisbane Lions (128, Genis Steel Oval); lost Carlton (85, Ikon Park); Bye; lost Gold Coast Suns (122, Genis Steel Oval); lost Williamstown (75, DSV Stadium).
TO COME: Footscray (Genis Steel Oval); Geelong (GMHBA Stadium); Sandringham (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); GWS (Genis Steel Oval); Bye.
SUMMARY: It has been a long season for the Bullants, and the past six weeks have been a nightmare with a series of games against the best teams in the competition. Things should ease up a bit now and they should be a lot more competitive in their remaining fixtures against the mid-table teams.
PREDICTION: 2-16 (20th)

21st, 0-14, 52.5%
STREAK: Lost 14
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Carlton (52, Piranha Park); lost Footscray (32, DSV Stadium); lost Southport (40, Fankhauser Reserve); lost North Melbourne (30, Piranha Park); lost Werribee (60, Piranha Park).
TO COME: Casey Demons (Piranha Park); Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium); Bye; Frankston (Piranha Park); Essendon (Windy Hill).
SUMMARY: It has been a long wait for the Lions, but they will see all the last three games as winnable if they can play four quarters at the level they produced for periods of the games against North Melbourne, Southport and Footscray. A standout performance like the one in Ballarat late last year would certainly not surprise.
PREDICTION: 0-18 (21st)