CHARLIE Curnow has bolted to a commanding lead in the Coleman Medal race after cashing in at historic levels against the bottom-two teams.

Now, the powerful Blue must wait to see whether his nearest rival, Adelaide's Taylor Walker, will do the same.

Curnow has kicked 25 of his 61 goals this season against last-placed West Coast (hauls of nine and 10) and 17th-ranked North Melbourne (six goals). Those bags make up 41 per cent of his 61 goals, putting him on track to record the highest percentage of goals kicked against the bottom two sides since 1987, when the then-VFL expanded beyond 12 teams.

That percentage will obviously fall as Curnow and the Blues navigate their final five games against Collingwood, St Kilda, Melbourne, Gold Coast and GWS. But even if Curnow finishes with 80-plus goals, he'll still be above 30 per cent – well clear of the next highest proportion scored by Jeremy Cameron in 2019.

Highest % of Coleman goals kicked against bottom-two teams

Of course, the variation in the fixture in any given year means that not every player gets the same opportunity to face the bottom-two sides. But it's handy to make the most of the chances you do get.

Despite Coleman-winning totals dropping steadily since the heady days of the '80s and '90s, Curnow's 25 goals against bottom-two sides will still rank second since 1987, behind only Jason Dunstall's 30 majors in 1989 and ahead of Gary Ablett snr's 23 goals in 1994.

Dunstall twice kicked eight against eventual wooden-spooner Richmond in 1989, and five more against 13th-placed Footscray. However, his best effort of the season was 11 goals, achieved against both Collingwood and St Kilda.

In 1994, Ablett had his best outing of the season with a 14-goal haul against a hapless Sydney, and also booted six in the return clash. He added three more against Fitzroy to make up his 23-goal tally.

Curnow is seven goals clear of Walker with five games to play, and recent history suggests there's a good chance that Charlie's bag of 10 won't be the last big haul of the year.

In the past six seasons, we've seen five big individual hauls come in the final three rounds. Ben Brown kicked off the trend in 2017 when he booted seven against the Lions in round 23, before Jack Riewoldt went big with a 10-goal bag against Gold Coast in round 21 the following season.

Brown made it something of a habit in 2019, booting 10 against Port Adelaide in round 22, before Jeremy Cameron sealed his first Coleman Medal the following week with another nine against Gold Coast.

And in 2022, Tom Lynch made a mess of the Hawks with eight goals at the MCG in round 22 to give the Tiger faithful some late-season cheer.

So, what does all this mean for the pack that's chasing Charlie?

North Melbourne's Nick Larkey (48 goals) is 13 behind Curnow and obviously can't play his own team, but has games against West Coast and Gold Coast to come where he'll be eyeing a strong return.

Equally, it's hard to see Tom Hawkins (45 goals) making up the 16-goal gap to Curnow. Geelong's draw makes it all the more unlikely, with Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs to come.

But it's all set up for Walker. After Saturday night's Showdown, the Crows host Gold Coast at Adelaide Oval, before clashes with Brisbane and Sydney. But it could all come down to round 24, when Adelaide travels to Optus Stadium to take on the Eagles – against whom Walker booted a career-best 10 goals in round 13.

Let the feasting in the final rounds begin.

The Coleman Medal run home

Charlie Curnow
R20: v Collingwood @ MCG
R21: v St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R22: v Melbourne @ MCG
R23: v Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: v GWS @ Marvel Stadium

Taylor Walker
R20: v Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R21: v GC at Adelaide Oval
R22: v Brisbane @ Gabba
R23: v Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R24: v West Coast at Optus Stadium

Nick Larkey
R20: v West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R21: v Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
R22: v Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R23: v Richmond @ MCG
R24: v Gold Coast @ Blundstone Arena

Tom Hawkins
R20: v Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium
R21: v Port Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: v Collingwood @ MCG
R23: v St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R24: v Western Bulldogs @ GMHBA Stadium