IN THIS column last week it was noted that Geelong had overhauled its game-plan late in the season to emphasise long kicking. The Cats' Grand Final performance validated that assessment.
The interesting question now to consider is whether other clubs will follow the Cats' lead and start bombing the ball.
From rounds one to 23, Geelong's highest number of effective long kicks (to a teammate or resulting in a stoppage) was 67. In the four games from the thrashing of Collingwood in round 24 the Cats' lowest number of long kicks in a game was 69.
The long-kicks count over the final month was: 69 (against Collingwood), 76 (Hawthorn), 75 (West Coast) and 76 (Collingwood). So the Cats' number of long kicks in the Grand Final was their equal highest of the season, matching their tally against Hawthorn in the qualifying final.
The Cats' propensity to kick long in the Grand Final was backed up by their dominance around the ball. They had 31 more contested possessions than Collingwood, an enormous tally in a match that was close until late.
According to Champion Data, a contested possession differential of 20 indicates a blowout.
Geelong's strong win in contested ball was evened up by Collingwood's clear victory in the uncontested possessions count; the Magpies had 29 more uncontested possessions. In short, Geelong won inside and Collingwood won outside.
Collingwood's loss in contested ball was a rarity. The Magpies finished the season with the highest average winning tally in contested ball. On average the Magpies finished each match with 15 more contested possessions than their opponents.
It just happened that Geelong beat up the Magpies on the day it mattered most.
The validation of Geelong's long-kicking plan makes you wonder whether it should have been playing a long-kicking game throughout its successful era.
Last season the Cats had a kicks-to-handball ratio of 1:1, meaning they had one kick for every handball. During the 2011 finals they had a kicks to handball ratio of about 1:1.75, meaning they had four kicks for every three handballs.
Given Geelong's strength in hard-bodied midfielders, it might have made more sense over recent seasons to reduce matches to a battle for contested footy rather than whipping the ball away from contests with handball.
Geelong's long-kicking game-plan as practised over the past month requires a lot of trust.
Every time the Cats booted long against Collingwood on Saturday they trusted that a teammate would be good enough to take the mark or at least bring the ball to ground, where another teammate would be good enough to win the contested ball.
It was in complete contrast to the trend of recent seasons to lessen risk by kicking short.
To watch Geelong on Saturday was like watching an army attacking in waves. The Cats kicked long to a big bloke and then the midfielders pushed up at the foot of the pack. Then they kicked long again and the midfielders pushed up again.
It was if the Cats were pushing back the enemy line step by brutal step.
While it's an annual event for the rest of the competition to try to copy the premiers' tactics, it's hard to see widespread adoption of the Cats' plan. Such a plan requires a proficiency in gaining contested possessions that would rule out many clubs.
Of the top four clubs, Collingwood and West Coast could certainly give it a go because both are adept at getting the hard ball, whereas Hawthorn would struggle without an overhaul.
If you take the contested versus uncontested percentages for each club's top eight midfielders, Collingwood and West Coast actually rate higher in getting the hard ball than Geelong, albeit narrowly.
Players are considered to be inside players if more than 40 per cent of their possessions are contested. The same might be applied to clubs.
Of the West Coast midfielders' possessions this season, 41.9 per cent were contested. With Collingwood, it was 41.1. Geelong's percentage was 40.8.
Hawthorn's contested ball percentage for its midfielders was only 34.8, a figure that supports the theory that the Hawks tailored their game around precise kicking rather than contested footy. It was a plan devised to unpick the winning tactic of the 2010 season, Collingwood's forward press.
For several years now, Hawthorn has made a priority of recruiting players who are excellent kicks. Its absolute priority has been left-footers because they're regarded as the best kicks.
The Hawks have recruited their share of hard-bodied types but they would need more to compete in the contested-footy area with their fellow leading clubs. In any case, the Hawks lost their preliminary final to Collingwood by only three points. They've got plenty to work with just the way they are.
So in conclusion some clubs might well adopt Geelong's long-kicking plan while others will leave it alone. It suggests a tantalising season of contrasts in 2012.
Uncontested possessions v contested possessions
Geelong | UP% | CP% |
Bartel | 59 | 41 |
Chapman | 64 | 36 |
Christensen | 54 | 46 |
Corey | 56 | 44 |
Duncan | 69 | 31 |
Kelly | 57 | 43 |
Ling | 62 | 38 |
Selwood | 53 | 47 |
Average | 59.2 | 40.8 |
Collingwood | UP% | CP% |
Ball | 55 | 45 |
Blair | 49 | 51 |
Didak | 70 | 30 |
Pendlebury | 55 | 45 |
Sidebottom | 68 | 32 |
Swan | 58 | 42 |
Thomas | 60 | 40 |
Wellingham | 56 | 44 |
Average | 58.9 | 41.1 |
Hawthorn | UP% | CP% |
Shaun Byrgoyne | 59 | 41 |
Luke Hodge | 59 | 41 |
Jordan Lewis | 62 | 38 |
Sam Mitchell | 59 | 41 |
Shane Savage | 68 | 32 |
Liam Shiels | 65 | 35 |
Isaac Smith | 76 | 24 |
Clinton Young | 74 | 26 |
Average | 65.2 | 34.8 |
West Coast | UP% | CP% |
Andrew Embley | 64 | 36 |
Andrew Gaff | 75 | 25 |
Daniel Kerr | 49 | 51 |
Chris Masten | 58 | 42 |
Matt Priddis | 46 | 54 |
Adam Selwood | 64 | 36 |
Scott Selwood | 56 | 44 |
Luke Shuey | 53 | 47 |
Average | 58.1 | 41.9 |