1. Hawthorn
64 points (16 wins, three losses) 138.4 per cent
Friday night's scrappy win over the Saints ensured the Hawks remain in top spot, but Geelong is nipping at their heels. Friday night's blockbuster against Collingwood now shapes as an enthralling contest after the Magpies' recent resurgence. Ideally, Hawthorn would like to manage its players in the lead-up to September but it will need to be right on its game in the final three rounds of the season. Two more wins will sew up a position in the top two and, in all likelihood, ensure top spot for the Hawks. The double chance - in the form of a top-four spot - is already assured.
The run home:
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
2. Geelong
60 points (15 wins, four losses) 133.1 per cent
The Cats didn't close the game as well as they would have liked against the Power, but still edged ahead of the Swans thanks to their slip-up against the Pies. To ensure a top-two finish, the Cats still need to win all three of their remaining games, as two wins would leave the door open for a fast-finishing Fremantle to steal a home final.
The run home:
Rd 21: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium
3. Sydney Swans
58 points (14 wins, four losses, one draw) 138.2 per cent
Dropped back to third spot after falling to Collingwood at ANZ Stadium. The Swans should bounce back against the rebuilding Saints this week, before a pivotal game against Geelong at the Cattery. Win that game - and the next two - and a home final is theirs, provided they stay ahead of Fremantle on percentage. Lose to the Cats and they could easily drop back to fourth - and even risk dropping to as low as sixth if the Pies and Tigers win all three of their games.
The run home:
Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG
Rd 22: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at ANZ Stadium
4. Fremantle
58 points (14 wins, four losses, one draw) 132.0 per cent
Made a statement against the lowly Giants and now shape as a real chance to finish inside the top two. A powerful last quarter earned the Dockers much-needed percentage as the race for home final and double chance intensifies. With three winnable games to come, the Dockers are every chance of beating both Geelong and the Swans to second place, given the Swans play both the Cats and Hawks in the run home. A favourable draw helps but the Dockers are on track for a serious premiership tilt.
The run home:
Rd 21: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
5. Collingwood
52 points (13 wins and six losses) 116.7 per cent
The Pies, all of a sudden, look the goods. Three wins on the trot, capped by a big win over the Swans, and a spot in the top four is within their sights. However, they have their work cut out for them. Collingwood needs to win all three of its remaining games and hope the Swans lost two of theirs - still a real possibility given the premiers face Geelong and Hawthorn.
The run home:
Rd 21: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 22: West Coast at the MCG
Rd 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
6. Richmond
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 116.2 per cent
To the relief of their long-suffering fans, the Tigers officially booked their spot in September by doing only what was required against the Brisbane Lions. Coach Damien Hardwick has signalled that he won’t simply be satisfied with merely making the eight but shoring up a strong position within it, so now is the time for the Tigers to tune up for the business end of the season by winning at least two, if not all three, of their remaining games to push for a top-four berth. MCG blockbusters against Carlton and Essendon will tell the tale, split by a welcome percentage-boosting opportunity against Greater Western Sydney.
The run home:
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
7. Essendon
52 points (13 wins, six losses) 113.1 per cent
No matter how on-field results play out, the besieged Bombers cannot miss the top eight, but they appear to have hit the wall after three successive losses by a combined tally of 188 points. While a top-four berth is still mathematically possible, in reality it is a pipedream. Missing the finals altogether – as a result of AFL sanctions for their controversial supplements program – is a possibility that could still dramatically change the complexion of the finals race. How they rebound against solid opposition over the next three weeks might dictate just how far they progress in the finals.
The run home:
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 23: Richmond at the MCG
8. Port Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, eight losses) 106.4 per cent
One win from the final three rounds should be enough for the Power to qualify for the finals, and they should do that against either Gold Coast at home this week or against a weary Carlton in the last round at AAMI Park. The only seemingly unwinnable game appears their round 22 clash with Fremantle in Perth. One thing is certain: Port's penchant of coming home hard will ensure they have the belief to win from almost any position late in a game. Even if they pull off the miraculous and win all three, it's unlikely they will rise above eighth, although sixth place - and a home final - is not impossible.
The run home:
Rd 21: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at AAMI Stadium
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9. Carlton
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 107.5 per cent
After suffering a shock defeat to the lowly Western Bulldogs and season-ending injuries to superstar Chris Judd and defender Matthew Watson, the likely best result the Blues can hope for is to make the finals by default: by clinging to ninth spot and qualifying in the event that Essendon is stripped of its premiership points. By legitimate means, if they win their next two games against top-eight sides Richmond and Essendon, they could set up a final-round blockbuster for eighth spot against the Power. However, the Blues' destiny is out of their hands. They could just as easily lose all three remaining games and finish as low as 12th, which would be a disastrous result for a club that entered the season with such optimism under new coach Mick Malthouse.
The run home:
Rd 21: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 22: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 23: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
10. West Coast
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 106.3 per cent
The Eagles breathed new life into their quest for a finals berth by thrashing Essendon by 53 points at Etihad Stadium. The problem is, they will likely have to win all of their remaining matches to make the eight, or at least two of them to finish ninth and potentially benefit from the Bombers' downfall. The Eagles will certainly need to replicate the manic intensity they displayed against Essendon in the next fortnight against Geelong (Patersons Stadium) and Collingwood (MCG). The triumphant return of the classy Mark LeCras could prove pivotal.
The run home:
Rd 21: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 23: Adelaide at Patersons Stadium
11. North Melbourne
32 points (eight wins, 11 losses) 120.6 per cent
Despite losing seven games by no more than two goals, the Kangaroos are still not yet out of the finals race, particularly if they finish ninth. They can’t afford to drop another game though, which will be frightfully tough against certain finalists Essendon, Hawthorn and Collingwood. Their big percentage could still be an influencing factor.
The run home:
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
12. Adelaide
32 points (eight wins, 11 losses) 101.1 per cent
Like a few sides above them, the Crows need to win every game to be a chance – most likely via the default ninth position – and could do just that given they have three very winnable games ahead of them. It's a remarkable scenario, given that before their win over North Melbourne, they had won just two of their previous nine games.
The run home:
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 23: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
