WILL Jonathan Brown notch a hat-trick in what has been a year of firsts for the big power forward?

Will Simon Black make it two in a row and four in his illustrious career to date?

Or will another Brisbane Lion burst from the pack to take a surprise spot on the winners’ podium?

All these questions will be answered on Saturday night, when the Brisbane Lions unveil the recipient of the Merrett-Murray Medal at the 2007 Club Champion dinner.

Brown will start the nominal favourite after a year in which he claimed his inaugural Coleman Medal with 77 majors and earned his first All-Australian guernsey. The 25-year-old was also runner-up in the AFL Players’ Association most valuable player award behind Geelong star Gary Ablett.

But Black appears well-placed to challenge Brown. The 2002 Brownlow Medallist blazed his way to 22 votes and a handy lead in this year’s league best-and-fairest before being passed late-on by winner Jimmy Bartel.

The key to whichever player takes home the Merrett-Murray may lie in the voting system. The Lions’ match committee, voting as a unit, rates each player in each game between 0 and 5.

This system might well reward Black, who constantly played under hard mid-field tags and was a surprise omission from the 40-man All-Australian shortlist.

At the time, Lions coach Leigh Matthews made reference to the degree of difficulty Black often faced in going about his on-field duties.

”I know the opposition teams don’t overlook him,” Matthews said.

”You know the first of our midfielders who gets tagged is Simon Black. You know who Brett Kirk and Brad Sewell and Cameron Ling are going to.

”Sometimes you’ve got to work out degree of difficulty. And it’s much more difficult if you are the recipient of that close midfield tag, rather than the other midfielders who tend to be able to play with more freedom.”

Then again, the voting system could just as easily work in favour of Brown, who fought off double and sometimes triple-teams to kick the second highest season tally of goals in Lions history.

Brown was also prominent in Brownlow voting, storming home with 14 votes in the second half of the season to poll 17 for the season – in the process being the only non midfielder to finish in the top-10.

”We’re unbelievably dependent on Jonathan,” Matthews admitted after the round 22 loss to Geelong.

While Brown and Black would seem to form a likely quinella for Saturday night, several other Lions are set to feature high on the leaderboard.

Jed Adcock made a most successful transition from defence to the midfield, Luke Power was as consistent as ever, Jamie Charman continued to blossom into a top-notch ruckman, Daniel Merrett maintained his development as a strong and athletic full-back and Tim Notting had a career-best year on the wing.

Veteran Nigel Lappin is also in the mix but will concede others a head start, having missed four of the first five games with a quad injury.

Other awards to be presented are Best Midfielder, Best Defender, Best Forward, Members’ Choice Player of the Year, The Courier Mail Player of the Year, Don Smith Most Professional Player, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Most Effective Tackler and Most Courageous Player.

At the risk of ending up with egg on my face, my top-five picks for the 2007 Merrett-Murray Medal are:

1. Jonathan Brown: quite simply the most dominant physical force in the competition. The goals flowed freely in the second half of the season but it shouldn’t be forgotten that Brown was also very good through the first 11 rounds – even if the Brownlow voting didn’t necessarily reflect that. Such a good player that it often takes three opponents to subdue him.

2. Simon Black: adjudged best-on-ground no fewer than six times in 2007 by the umpires – as good a measure as any of his ability to perform in the face of inevitable tags. Never puts in a bad game, which is likely to be rewarded under the Lions’ voting format. Brown’s biggest threat.

3. Jed Adcock: made the move from defence to the midfield in the second half of the season and shone wherever he played. His consistency is certain to be reflected in the voting, as are his desire and willingness to do the “one-percenters.” A definite top-three chance and could even pull off an upset win.

4. Tim Notting: had his best season since finishing seventh in the best-and-fairest in 2001. Had a career-high 463 disposals, lifting his per-game average above the 20-mark for the first time. Also used his raking right foot to kick 16 goals – 14 more than he managed to 2006.

5. Daniel Merrett: the real smoky in this top five, the big full-back is still to add an attacking side to his game - but the defensive aspect is already first-rate. Loves a challenge and he embraced plenty of them in 2007, taking on the league’s best full-forwards. Beat more than a few of them too.