FOUR rounds remain until the Smithy’s VFL finals with 14 of the 21 teams still a hope of making a run at the premiership, even though at least two of those would need to go undefeated from here to do so.
Some teams only have three games remaining to launch a crack at the finals, while others still have four, which will clearly affect the chances of teams making the top four, top six and top 10.
The most likely outcome is the top six and the top 10 are both already set, but it only takes one upset to turn the entire equation on its head.
Let’s have a look at who might end up in the finals and wildcard spots in one month’s time.
1st, 13-2, 145.3%
STREAK: Won 10 (2024: WWWLLWbWWWWbWWWWW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Northern Bullants (54 points, AAO); def Coburg (79, AAO); def Footscray (23, AAO); def Sydney (14, TO); def Williamstown (20, AAO)
TO COME: 15.Port Melbourne (2:05pm Saturday, ETU Stadium); 5.Southport (Avalon Airport Oval); bye; 6.Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval)
SUMMARY: On fire as they seek to go one better than their Grand Final appearance last year. The Tigers’ huge percentage means they will secure the minor premiership with two wins from their last three matches. They are all danger games, but they will be confident of winning all three.
BRENDAN RHODES’ PREDICTION: 15-3 (1st)
2nd, 11-3-1, 120.2%
STREAK: Draw 1 (2024: WWWWbWWWWWLLbWLWD)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: drew Geelong (0, GMHBA); def Carlton (9, MWO); lost Werribee 23 (AAO); def North Melbourne (34, ASO); bye
TO COME: bye; 16.Casey Demons (Mission Whitten Oval); 10.Frankston (Kinetic Stadium); 14.Sydney (Tramway Oval)
SUMMARY: Footscray is still holding second due to a dominant first half of the season. However, the Bulldogs will want to shore up their form after only two victories from their past six matches. They will start clear favourites in all three games to come, but this week’s bye could cost them that top two berth and the two home finals that come with it.
PREDICTION: 14-3-1 (3rd)
3rd, 11-3, 123.0%
STREAK: Won 8 (2024: WWLLWLbWWbWWWWWbW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Sydney (5, BHA); bye; def Casey Demons (46, BHA); def Coburg (48, BHA); def Frankston (50, BHA)
TO COME: 9.Gold Coast Suns (12:50pm Saturday, People First Stadium); 19.Carlton (IKON Park); 12.GWS Giants (Brighton Homes Arena); 20.Collingwood (AIA Vitality Centre)
SUMMARY: Challenging Werribee as the form team of the competition after surviving a huge scare from Sydney last week. Their run of five home games in a row is over and they will travel for three of their last four, but they should secure a top-two finish if they can win the QClash this week.
PREDICTION: 15-3 (2nd)
4th, 10-4-1, 127.5%
STREAK: Draw 1 (2024: LLWWWWbWWWWbLWLWD)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: drew Footscray (0, GMHBA); def Collingwood (29, AIA); lost Box Hill Hawks (1, BHCO); def Sandringham (15, GMHBA); lost Port Melbourne (2, ETU)
TO COME: 13.North Melbourne (1:05pm Saturday, Arden Street Oval); bye; 19.Carlton (GMHBA); 11.Sandringham (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
SUMMARY: Have won just two of their past five since their eight-match winning run ended a month ago. But that includes a draw to the second-placed Bulldogs, while the two losses have been by a combined three points, so there isn’t much to worry about. There are a couple of potential banana peels on the road to finish, and they will need to win them both to secure the double chance.
PREDICTION: 12-5-1 (4th)
5th, 10-5, 125.3%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: WLLWLWWWWbWWWLbWL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Sandringham (1, WSTBBO); def Box Hill Hawks (53, FR); bye; lost GWS Giants (27, FR); def Carlton (12, IKON Park)
TO COME: 14.Sydney Swans (12:05pm Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve); 1.Werribee (Avalon Airport Oval); bye; 13.North Melbourne (Fankhauser Reserve)
SUMMARY: The collapse in the last 40 minutes against Sandringham last week looks likely to be fatal to the Sharks’ bid for a double chance, even though they should be able to deal with the Swans and Kangaroos at home. Will likely need to beat flag favourites Werribee on the road if they want to make the top four.
PREDICTION: 12-6 (5th)
6th, 10-5, 116.5%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: WWLWWLWbLWWWbLWLW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def North Melbourne (14, ASO); lost Southport (53, FR); def Geelong (1, BHCO); lost Port Melbourne (7, BHCO); bye
TO COME: 7.Williamstown (12:00pm Sunday, Box Hill City Oval); 12.GWS Giants (Blacktown International Sports Park); bye; 1.Werribee (Box Hill City Oval)
SUMMARY: All three games remaining shape as tough for the Hawks, but we know how hard they are to beat, especially at home. Two wins should be enough to avoid playing in the sudden-death Wildcard Round, but the pressure will go through the roof if they slip up against Williamstown in what shapes as a qualifying final come early this Sunday.
PREDICTION: 12-6 (6th)
7th, 10-5, 104.1%
STREAK: Won 2 (2024: WWWLWWWWbLLWLbLWW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Richmond (22, DSV); def Sandringham (20, DSV); lost Gold Coast Suns (27, PFS); bye; lost Werribee (20, AAO)
TO COME: 6.Box Hill Hawks (12:00pm Sunday, Box Hill City Oval); 13.North Melbourne (DSV Stadium); bye; 12.GWS Giants (DSV Stadium)
SUMMARY: This Sunday against the Hawks is the big one for the Seagulls if they want to pinch a spot in the top six. The winner is likely to take that spot and the home elimination final that comes with it. It would be an upset if they dropped either of their last two home games, even though both rivals could be fighting for their lives.
PREDICTION: 12-6 (7th)
8th, 9-6, 110.7%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: WWLbWWLLWLWLbWWWL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Williamstown (22, DSV); def Gold Coast Suns (26, SC); def Northern Bullants (95, GSO); def Carlton (36, SC); bye
TO COME: 20.Collingwood (10:05am Sunday, Swinburne Centre); bye; 11.Sandringham (Swinburne Centre); 19.Carlton (IKON Park)
SUMMARY: Steve Morris is competing with Jackson Kornberg for coach of the year. The injury-riddled Tigers look almost certain to finish in the top 10, given they will start favourites in their last three matches. However, they wouldn’t want to drop off at all, because the Zebras will be waiting to pounce and the Blues are in season-best form.
PREDICTION: 11-7 (9th)
9th, 7-5-2, 111.8%
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: LbWDWWLbWLDbWWWLL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost GWS Giants (27, BISP); lost Richmond (26, SC); def Williamstown (27, PFS); def Frankston (33, PFS); def Essendon (18, PFS)
TO COME: 3.Brisbane Lions (12:50pm Saturday, People First Stadium); 18.Coburg (People First Stadium); 17.Essendon (Windy Hill); 16.Casey Demons (People First Stadium)
SUMMARY: The reigning premiers should be fine to keep their defence alive past Round 21, given they play three bottom-six teams in the last three games. But if they can end the Lions’ winning streak then a top six berth will remain within their reach. The Suns were the last team to beat the Lions in a 14-goal thrashing at Brighton Homes Arena in Round 6.
PREDICTION: 10-6-2 (8th)
10th, 8-7, 95.5%
STREAK: Won 3 (2024: LWbWWLWWLLLbLLWWW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Casey Demons (27, KS); def Northern Bullants (28, GSO); def Collingwood (19, KS); lost Gold Coast (33, KS); lost Brisbane Lions (50, BHA)
TO COME: 18.Coburg (1:05pm Sunday, Piranha Park); 15.Port Melbourne (Kinetic Stadium); 2.Footscray (Kinetic Stadium); bye
SUMMARY: Dare to dream, Frankston fans. It’s been 16 long years without finals action, but your fate remains in your own hands. The Dolphins will start favourites in the next two but must win them or face needing to roll Footscray for the first time in history to stay alive. The last-round bye is likely to create heart palpitations for all in the Pod.
PREDICTION: 10-8 (10th)
11th, 7-7-1, 103.8%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: LWLbWWLWWWDLbLLLW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Southport (1, WSTBBO); lost Williamstown (20, DSV); lost Sydney (7, RSEA); lost Geelong (15, GMHBA); bye
TO COME: 17.Essendon (1:05pm Sunday, Windy Hill); bye; 8.Richmond (Swinburne Centre); 4.Geelong (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
SUMMARY: Coming from the clouds to upset the Sharks and break a five-match winless run resurrects the Zebras’ hopes of breaking an eight-year finals drought. Win all three and they should make it through to the Wildcard Round, although they still need the Suns or Dolphins to drop one. Could come down to the Cats’ game on the last day of the season.
PREDICTION: 9-8-1 (11th)
12th, 7-7, 94.0%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: LbWWWLLLLbLWWWLbW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Gold Coast Suns (27, BISP); bye; lost Carlton (21, BISP def Southport (27, FR); def Sydney (14, BISP)
TO COME: 16.Casey Demons (11:35am Saturday, Casey Fields); 6.Box Hill Hawks (Blacktown International Sports Park); 3.Brisbane Lions (Brighton Homes Arena); 7.Williamstown (DSV Stadium)
SUMMARY: Still having four games to play means the Giants can still be the masters of their destiny, and if they win all four they will make it through to the Wildcard Round. This week against the Demons is a non-negotiable given they finish with three premiership contenders, two of them on the road. If they make it, they will have well and truly earned it.
PREDICTION: 8-10 (12th)
13th, 7-8, 88.0%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: WWWLLLLLLbWWWLbWL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Box Hill Hawks (14, ASO); def Sydney (5, Tramway Oval); bye; lost Footscray (34, ASO); def Casey Demons (6, Casey Fields)
TO COME: 4.Geelong (1:05pm Saturday, Arden Street Oval); 7.Williamstown (DSV Stadium); bye; 5.Southport (Fankhauser Reserve)
SUMMARY: That six-match losing streak in the first half of the season is likely to prove fatal to the Kangaroos in the long run, given they have the worst percentage of the teams still alive in the finals race and play three top seven opponents in the run home. They need to beat them all to have any chance, which isn’t impossible but is unlikely.
PREDICTION: 8-10 (13th)
14th, 6-8-1, 101.0%
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: WLbDLWWLWbLWLLWLL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Brisbane Lions (5, BHA); lost North Melbourne (5, TO); def Sandringham (7, RSEA); lost Werribee (14, TO); lost GWS Giants (14, BISP)
TO COME: 5.Southport (12:05pm Saturday, Fankhauser Reserve); bye; 20.Collingwood (Tramway Oval); 2.Footscray (Tramway Oval)
SUMMARY: Inconsistency has all but ruled the Swans out of post-season action, splicing terrific away wins with horrible home losses. Four losses in the past five by a maximum of 14 points, including the last two where they’ve had the chance to win or draw at the death only to miss the shot, means they need a miracle to survive.
PREDICTION: 7-10-1 (14th)
15th, 5-10, 93.5%
STREAK: Lost 2 (2024: LLLLLWWbLWLLWWLbL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Coburg (5, PP); bye; lost Essendon (26, ETU); def Box Hill Hawks (7, BHCO); def Geelong (2, ETU Stadium)
TO COME: 1.Werribee (2:05pm Saturday, ETU Stadium); 10.Frankston (Kinetic Stadium); bye; 21.Northern Bullants (ETU Stadium)
SUMMARY: Three games remaining to create some memories in season 150, honour outgoing coach Adam Skrobalak and sell themselves to their anointed successor in James Hird. Departing coach syndrome gives them a chance this week and they can play finals spoiler to Frankston before their Round 21 grand final.
PREDICTION: 6-12 (15th)
16th, 5-10, 91.1%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: LLWbLLWLLLWbLWLWL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Frankston (27, KS); def Essendon (22, CF); lost Brisbane Lions (46, BHA); def Northern Bullants (28, GSO); lost North Melbourne (6, CF)
TO COME: 12.GWS Giants (11:35am Saturday, Casey Fields); 2.Footscray (Mission Whitten Oval); bye; 9.Gold Coast Suns (People First Stadium)
SUMMARY: Realistically their last chance to record a win comes this week when they can plunge a dagger into the Giants’ top 10 hopes. They then travel to a pair of powerhouses in the last two games. That’s not saying they’re not capable of upsetting the Bulldogs or Suns, they just haven’t shown that in recent times.
PREDICTION: 6-12 (16th)
17th, 5-9, 87.1%
STREAK: Lost 1 (2024: LLLLWbLWLLWbLWWLb)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: bye; lost Casey Demons (22, CF); def Port Melbourne (26, ETU); def Collingwood (35, WH); lost Gold Coast (18, PFS)
TO COME: 11.Sandringham (1:05pm Sunday, Windy Hill); 21.Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); 9.Gold Coast Suns (Windy Hill); 18.Coburg (Piranha Park)
SUMMARY: Will be eyeing off this Sunday as a chance to leave their mark on 2024 by putting the Zebras finals hopes onto life support. Will be confident of at least two wins, and they have a good recent record against the Suns as well. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that they go 4-0 or even 0-4 in the run home.
PREDICTION: 5-13 (17th)
18th, 4-10, 79.9%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: LLbWLLLLbWLLWLbLW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Port Melbourne (5, PP); lost Werribee (79, AAO); bye; lost Brisbane Lions (48, BHA); def Northern Bullants (13, PP)
TO COME: 10.Frankston (1:05pm Sunday, Piranha Park); 9.Gold Coast Suns (People First Stadium); 21.Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); 17.Essendon (Piranha Park)
SUMMARY: Will take great confidence out of their stunning comeback against Port Melbourne last week and will be thinking they could win three out of their last four and take seven wins for the year, which would be a monumental climb from last year. They loom as a major danger to Frankston’s finals hopes this week.
PREDICTION: 5-13 (18th)
19th, 3-12, 88.8%
STREAK: Won 1 (2024: bLLWLLLLLLLbLLWLW)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: def Collingwood (83, IP); lost Footscray (9, MWO); def GWS Giants (21, BISP); lost Richmond (36, SC); lost Southport (12, IP)
TO COME: bye; 3.Brisbane Lions (IKON Park); 4.Geelong (GMHBA Stadium); 8.Richmond (IKON Park)
SUMMARY: Likely played their Grand Final in last week’s hammering of arch-rival Collingwood, given they have three finals-bound opponents to close out the year after this week’s bye. But the Blues are in season-best touch at the moment, probably eliminating the Giants and pushing the Bulldogs before their Magpie rout.
PREDICTION: 3-15 (19th)
20th, 2-13, 73.6%
STREAK: Lost 12 (2024: WLWLLLLLbLLLbLLLL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Carlton (83, IP); lost Geelong (29, AIA); lost Frankston (19, KS); lost Essendon (35, WH); bye
TO COME: 8.Richmond (10:05am Sunday, Swinburne Centre); bye; 14.Sydney (Tramway Oval); 3.Brisbane Lions (AIA Vitality Centre)
SUMMARY: A nightmare season for the Magpies, being without a win since Round 3, with last week’s collapse to the Blues an embarrassing result regardless of all the injuries. Hard to see them breaking the losing streak this season, with the likely eliminated Swans looming as their best chance.
PREDICTION: 2-16 (21st)
21st, 2-13, 60.0%
STREAK: Lost 6 (2024: LbLLLLWLLWbLLLLbLL)
PAST FIVE WEEKS: lost Werribee (54, AAO); lost Frankston (28, GSO); lost Richmond (95, GSO); lost Casey Demons (28, GSO); lost Coburg (13, PP)
TO COME: bye; 17.Essendon (Genis Steel Oval); 18.Coburg (Genis Steel Oval); 15.Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium)
SUMMARY: Can they pinch a third win to round out the season and potentially avoid the wooden spoon? The Bullants will see all three remaining games as winnable, taking on three fellow bottom seven teams. The Battle of Bell Street once again shapes as a mouthwatering contest.
PREDICTION: 3-15 (20th)
PREDICTED WILDCARD ROUND
Williamstown (7th) vs Frankston (10th)
Gold Coast Suns (8th) vs Richmond (9th)
PREDICTED WEEK ONE FINALS
First Qualifying Final: Werribee (1st) vs Geelong Cats (4th)
Second Qualifying Final: Brisbane Lions (2nd) vs Footscray Bulldogs (3rd)
First Elimination Final: Southport Sharks (5th) vs Lower-ranked Wildcard Round winner
Second Elimination Final: Box Hill Hawks (6th) vs Higher-ranked Wildcard Round winner
