HAWTHORN'S hopes of avenging its most lopsided loss of the year against Gold Coast on Saturday could rest simply on whether the Jekyll or Hyde version of itself turns up.
Statistics reveal the Hawks transform from the competition's steadiest ball users in victory to as leaky as a faulty tap in defeat this year.
The Suns, who had never beaten Hawthorn, thumped Alastair Clarkson's men by 86 points in round three and kick-started the latter's third-quarter woes with a club-record 10 goals.
The Hawks' sudden descent into mediocrity continues to fascinate the football world, with statistical analysis providing some sort of explanation for what is happening.
Hawthorn's average of 24 'giveaway turnovers' – blatant errors that lead to a turnover – in its four wins are the fewest of any side in that scenario, but the brown and gold slides to 11th with 29.6 in their seven losses.
Some culprits are emerging, with big-name Hawks Tom Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Cyril Rioli, Ben McEvoy and Jack Gunston far more prone to turnovers in 2017 when the tide turns for the worse.
Blake Hardwick, one of Hawthorn's most efficient with ball in hand, has the most dramatic drop-off in disposals per turnover from wins to losses. But he is a 20-year-old with nine matches under his belt.
Under-fire veteran Josh Gibson actually performs better in this area in defeats than victories, although he was guilty of sloppiness in the horror first half against Port Adelaide last week.
Disposals per turnover
| When Hawthorn wins | When Hawthorn loses | |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiden Brand | 7.8 | 5.9 |
| Luke Breust | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| Shaun Burgoyne | 6.6 | 5.2 |
| Ryan Burton | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| Jack Gunston | 6.9 | 4.7 |
| Blake Hardwick | 11.4 | 3.7 |
| Ricky Henderson | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Luke Hodge | 7.7 | 5.5 |
| Ben McEvoy | 11.2 | 7.1 |
| Tom Mitchell | 9.0 | 5.4 |
| Cyril Rioli | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Liam Shiels | 6.3 | 4.9 |
| Ty Vickery | 15.0 | 6.6 |
| TEAM | 6.3 | 5.3 |
The 0.3 opening half against the Power was the least prolific in club history and came just a fortnight after coughing up a 43-point lead in a second-half capitulation to Collingwood.
A season-worst 75 overall turnovers accompanied the Hawks' demolition in South Australia in a game that continued their trend of awful patches.
Rivals blitzed Hawthorn in at least one quarter in seven of the nine contests – all in the second half and five times in the third term – outside of the Collingwood and Port Adelaide clashes.
Gold Coast and Geelong managed 11 and 10 goals respectively at the Hawks' expense in consecutive weeks in rounds three and four. St Kilda, Essendon and Melbourne piled on at least seven goals in dominant terms against Hawthorn.
Turnovers under pressure are clearly a problem for the Hawks, but the key data – separated into each half – illustrates an alarming fall across multiple areas in the Magpies and Power games.
| First half v Coll | Second half v Coll | |
|---|---|---|
| Disposals | +10 | -61 |
| Contested possessions | +13 | -20 |
| Uncontested possessions | -9 | -43 |
| Clearances | +1 | -6 |
| Inside 50s | +3 | -7 |
| Scores per inside 50 | 56.0 per cent | 13.6 per cent |
| Disposals per turnover | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| Total score | 10.4 (64) | 1.2 (8) |
| First half v PA | Second half v PA | |
|---|---|---|
| Disposals | -59 | -16 |
| Contested possessions | -20 | -18 |
| Uncontested possessions | -34 | +2 |
| Clearances | 0 | -11 |
| Inside 50s | -18 | -20 |
| Scores per inside 50 | 21.4 per cent | 75.0 per cent |
| Disposals per turnover | 4.1 | 5.3 |
| Total score | 0.3 (3) | 7.2 (44) |
The problem for Clarkson is some of his most trusted soldiers, not just the sprinkling of youth in the line-up, are faltering when they are needed most.
An eighth straight finals campaign already looks doubtful, but Hawthorn will struggle to even go close unless it starts patching its mid-match leaks.
