SCOTT Pendlebury for the Brownlow Medal — that's the verdict of AFL Media reporters after each was asked to name his or her predictions for the 2012 premiership season.
Pendlebury scored the nod from five of the 15 writers, while no other player scored more than one vote.
Greater Western Sydney midfielder Stephen Coniglio was the leader of the Rising Star predictions, gaining five votes while Gold Coast midfielder Josh Caddy also tallied five.
While the predictions for the top five on the ladder is the same as the final ladder for 2011, there's a slight rearrangement of the order, with the Hawks and last year's premier, Geelong, swapping positions.
The Hawks are the clear preference for premiers while the Cats have been tipped to finish third.
But it's after the top five that the changes take place.
Fremantle is tipped as the club most likely to rise. Freo finished 11th in 2011 but under new coach Ross Lyon, and with a list brimming with talent, they're expected to reach sixth place.
St Kilda is tipped as the club most likely to fall. After finishing seventh in 2011, they're tipped to finish 12th.
While new coach Scott Watters should breathe new life into the Saints, they're expected to suffer from a paucity of good players coming up through the ranks.
The ranking of North Melbourne and Richmond in the middling positions of ninth and 10th reflects that no one quite knows what to do with them.
They both have young lists and both are capable to reaching the lower rungs of the top eight or sinking back into the bottom echelon of clubs if poor form, injuries or the vagaries of youth take their toll.
The most predictable choice in the top bracket of clubs is that the Sydney Swans will finish seventh. Every year we all tip the Swans to finish in the fifth to eight bracket, and history shows why.
In the five seasons since the Swans lost to West Coast in the 2006 Grand Final, they've finished between fifth and eighth in every season except one: 2009, when they finished 12th.
The Swans strike a balance of developing players while striving for finals. The problem is that in striking a balance, they're hitting middle ground.
The selection of Melbourne to finish 13th or 14th — level with the Western Bulldogs — is a slight surprise given that not so long ago they were tipped as a boom team because of their slew of top draft picks.
No one seems to want to trust the Demons to take advantage of those picks.
The tipsters are united on their selection of the bottom four clubs. History shows that one of those teams should rise up the ladder, but it's hard at this stage to see which one.
Collective ladders are conservative because they average out a range of selections. Most often they reflect the ladder of the previous season.
Even so, there's some nuggets in our predictions — and don't say we didn't warn you if Hawthorn wins the flag, Pendlebury wins the Brownlow and Coniglio is named as the Rising Star.
Ladder (based on most popular predictions)
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Geelong
West Coast
Carlton
Fremantle
Sydney Swans
Adelaide
North Melbourne
Richmond
Essendon
St Kilda
Melbourne
Western Bulldogs
Brisbane Lions
Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
GWS
