THE CATS of the modern era are known for playing fast, free-wheeling footy. Their games generally feature less stoppages than the average.
But the numbers suggest that Geelong may be better served by clogging things up against the Pies on Friday night.
Champion Data breaks scoring down to three sources: scores from turnovers, scores from stoppages and scores from kick-ins.
Only six per cent of scores originate from kick-ins, making the other two figures the crucial ones.
Collingwood leads the league in scores from turnovers, having notched 692 more points than their opposition from that source this season. There’s no team better at applying pressure on the ball-carrier, forcing a mistake, and then capitalising.
The Cats rank second in this area with a differential of +464; also impressive, but a sizeable 228 points behind their preliminary final opponent.
However, when it comes to scores from stoppages, the Cats still reign.
A score from a stoppage is recorded when a team takes first possession and moves the ball in an unbroken chain to score.
The 2009 premiers have scored 349 points more than their opposition from stoppages this year, 182 points better than the second-ranked team. They convert a first possession at a stoppage into a score 25.3 per cent of the time - nearly five per cent better than the league average.
The Cats’ swag of on-ball stars are masters of getting first hands on the ball and using it well enough to set up a run to goal. Not surprisingly, Gary Ablett is the main go-to man:
| Player | First possessions | Team points scored from first possessions |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Ablett | 134 | 152 |
| James Kelly | 87 | 99 |
| Jimmy Bartel | 84 | 97 |
| Joel Selwood | 134 | 95 |
| Paul Chapman | 66 | 71 |
Collingwood rank third in scores from stoppages, with a differential of +132. That’s good, but a long way behind the Cats.
The minor premier has three genuine stars when it comes to gaining first possession and setting up scoring opportunities, and then the numbers drop away sharply:
| Player | First possessions | Team points scored from first possessions |
|---|---|---|
| Dane Swan | 140 | 112 |
| Luke Ball | 108 | 106 |
| Scott Pendlebury | 114 | 95 |
| Dayne Beams | 64 | 65 |
| Dale Thomas | 37 | 47 |
So should Geelong coach Mark Thompson tell his players to continue the open, run-and-carry game that has served them so well, and risk serious scoreboard damage if they turn the ball over?
Or is he better off pushing numbers around the ball to force stoppages and back his team to convert from there?
Tell us what you think in the comments below.
