1. Collingwood
50 points (12 wins, three losses, one draw) 135.06 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 18: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 21: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Saturday's victory over St Kilda propelled the Pies to the top of the ladder, and with six straight games at the MCG, their run home could hardly be kinder. Rounds 19 (Geelong) and 22 (Hawthorn) loom as the key matches as the club looks for a top-two finish.
2. Geelong
48 points (12 wins, four losses), 142.73 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Brisbane Lions at Skilled Stadium
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Skilled Stadium
Last Friday's surprise loss to the Crows saw the Cats relinquish top spot, but two games at Skilled Stadium in the final six weeks against struggling interstate opponents will be timely. The round 19 clash with Collingwood is the key to a fourth straight top-four finish.
3. St Kilda
48 points (12 wins, four losses) 121.31 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
A chance to take top spot went begging for the Saints after Saturday's loss to the Magpies. The 2009 runner-up faces a kind draw following this Friday night's big clash with a resurgent Hawthorn, with no teams currently in the top eight featuring from rounds 18-22.
4. Fremantle
44 points (11 wins, five losses) 118.87 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: West Coast at Subiaco Oval
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Subiaco Oval
It hasn't been the best three weeks for Freo, which lost Michael Barlow to a season-ending injury, fell to a resurgent Richmond, and then just scraped home over lowly Melbourne last Sunday. Their round 17 clash with the fifth-placed Western Bulldogs - who have a considerably healthier percentage - looms as Fremantle's biggest match of the season so far.
5. Western Bulldogs
40 points (10 wins, six losses) 133.47 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
With the Sydney Swans a full win back in sixth place, this Sunday's clash with Fremantle is critical to the Dogs' dreams of a double-chance. Two tricky away fixtures - plus an Etihad Stadium clash with Geelong - make rounds 19-21 a potential minefield for Rodney Eade's men.
6. Sydney Swans
36 points (nine wins, seven losses), 111.28 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 18: Geelong at ANZ Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 20: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at the SCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
There are no easy games to come for the Swans, despite the fact that three of their remaining opponents are below them on the ladder. The Lions and Freo represent difficult away trips, while top-eight rivals Geelong, the Bulldogs and Hawthorn all visit Sydney. The side from the harbour city simply can't afford to drop this weekend's game against a Melbourne outfit that has been more competitive of late.
7. Hawthorn
36 points (nine wins, seven losses) 108.21 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
A massive win over the reeling Lions gave the Hawks a six per cent boost, drawing the 2008 premiers ever-closer to the Swans for sixth spot. Friday night's clash with St Kilda, who'll be looking to atone for Saturday's thrashing at the hands of Collingwood, will show us whether the Hawks are September contenders.
8. Carlton
32 points (eight wins, eight losses), 104.51 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: West Coast at Subiaco Oval
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
After the Blues were blown away early by the Swans in round 16, the remainder of Carlton's draw doesn't look as appealing as it did a few weeks ago. Two trips to Perth - plus clashes with premiership fancies Collingwood and Geelong - mean the Blues need to quickly arrest their form slide to even make the finals, let alone figure prominently.
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9. North Melbourne
32 points (eight wins, eight losses) 85.15 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Brad Scott's side will start favourite against Essendon this week and its final two games. Get the job done in those, and the Roos will have 11 wins. The remaining fixtures are against St Kilda, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs - all on home turf at Etihad Stadium. If the Roos can pinch one of those, they could be playing in September. On the downside, the Roos have by far the worst percentage of the 10 teams in contention for the final eight spots.
10. Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, nine losses) 93.58 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: St Kilda at AAMI Stadium
Knocking off Geelong last Friday was massive to Adelaide's chances of a last-gasp run at September action. They're now one game (and 10 per cent) out of the eight, but they can't afford any slip-ups, starting with this week's Showdown with cross-town rivals Port Adelaide.
11. Melbourne
22 points (five wins, 10 losses, one draw), 88.84 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Sydney Swans at the MCG
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at the MCG
Dean Bailey's side has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts in recent weeks, but would need to win all six of their remaining games - and improve their dismal percentage - to sneak into the finals. On the bright side, just one of their final half-dozen opponents was in the eight after round 16.
12. Essendon
20 points (five wins, 11 losses) 83.60 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 18: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
The Bombers have lost six straight and were belted by bottom side West Coast on Saturday, yet gained a spot on the ladder after the Brisbane Lions were thrashed by Hawthorn. The climb could be short-lived, with meetings with three of the top five sides still to come in the final six weeks.
13. Brisbane Lions
20 points (five wins, 11 losses) 81.60 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Geelong at Skilled Stadium
Rd 18: Melbourne at the Gabba
Rd 19: West Coast at Subiaco Oval
Rd 20: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the Gabba
The good news for the Lions is that their final five games of the season are all, on paper, potential wins. The bad? One win in 12 matches after a 4-0 start makes September action little more than a pipedream. The wooden spoon isn't yet out of the question.
14. Port Adelaide
20 points (five wins, 11 losses), 77.81 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 18: Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Port would dearly love to dent Adelaide's finals aspirations in this weekend's Showdown, but a win in any match would be the goal for new coach Matthew Primus after seven straight losses. Three winnable games close out Port's season.
15. Richmond
20 points (five wins, 11 losses), 74.19 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 18: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 19: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Despite Sunday's dispiriting loss to North Melbourne at a soggy MCG, the Tigers are still hopeful of a climb up the ladder. With five wins in their past seven matches, and all six of their remaining matches in Melbourne, Richmond has a friendly run home and should finish higher than 15th.
16. West Coast
16 points (four wins, 12 losses), 78.55 per cent
The run home:
Rd 17: Carlton at Subiaco Oval
Rd 18: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at Subiaco Oval
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Subiaco Oval
Rd 22: Geelong at Skilled Stadium
They clearly won't be playing finals, but the Eagles would be hopeful of some more wins after the Mark LeCras-inspired rout of Essendon last Saturday night. Just two games away from Subiaco Oval remain for a club looking to avoid its first wooden spoon.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
