Head to head: Carlton 111 wins, Melbourne 88 wins, two draws
Last time: Carlton 24.9 (153) d Melbourne 15.6 (96), round 21, 2009 at Etihad Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
Carlton
Dennis Armfield (quad) - test
Paul Bower (quad) - test
Ryan Houlihan (hamstring) - test
Chris Johnson (wrist) - 1 week
Kane Lucas (hamstring) - 1 week
Simon White (knee) - 2-3 weeks
Chris Yarran (thigh) - 2 weeks
Melbourne
Matthew Bate (ankle) - test
Sam Blease (leg) - 2 weeks
Colin Garland (knee) - test
Max Gawn (knee) - 6 weeks
Liam Jurrah (shoulder) - 4-5 weeks
John Meesen (ankle) - indefinite
Ricky Petterd (shoulder) - season
Jake Spencer (knee) - 4 weeks
Luke Tapscott (hip) - 4-5 weeks
FORM
Carlton: LWWLW
Melbourne: LLLWL
SUMMARY
This match pits sixth against 12th but one wouldn’t be surprised if it was a lot closer than the ladder positions suggested.
Carlton rebounded from its disappointing loss to Hawthorn in fine style last week, easily accounting for West Coast. Most of the Blues’ big guns fired, but none moreso than Bryce Gibbs. He racked up a career-high 45 touches to destroy the Eagles. The Demons won’t allow him as much room this weekend. Carlton’s small forwards were again a feature of the win.
Melbourne has won just one of its past five but it seems to be travelling better than that formline suggests. Tom Scully and Trengove were rested from the side that lost to Geelong last week, but will both return for this clash. The Dees love playing at the MCG. They’ve won three games there this season and should have won another. However the Blues are a big test.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Once a roaming ball magnet, now a stopper? Andrew Carrazzo won rich praise from Brett Ratten last week for his role in negating Shannon Hurn from getting his booming right boot to the footy too often. Will Carrazzo get a role on one of Melbourne’s young guns, or will he return to his role of accumulator?
Is it ridiculous to suggest Melbourne’s James Frawley could be line for an All-Australian jumper? The young Demon has been terrific in 2010. Last week he curbed Steve Johnson after the Cat kicked a couple early. This week, whichever Blue he minds will be in for a tough afternoon.
QUESTION MARKS
Will the two-pronged attack of Matthew Kreuzer and Sam Jacobs be too much for Mark Jamar?
Brad Miller, Jack Watts and Colin Sylvia could only manage one goal between them against Geelong last week. Can they have more success against Carlton’s backline?
Carlton’s tackling was a feature last week, with Jeff Garlett and Mitch Robinson at the forefront of the Blues’ forward pressure. Can they maintain that intensity against the Dees?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Melbourne’s defence has been pretty good all year, but it has been its tall defenders doing the work. Carlton’s scoring strength has been its ability to spread the load. While Setanta O’hAilpin has chimed in, its small forwards and midfielders have done the job. They have greater experience than the Dees, and that may just get them across the line in a tight one.
PREDICTION
Carlton by 15 points
Chat with host Murray Belkin and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 1.40pm Saturday or join the conversation on Twitter: #aflbluesdemons
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
