Star forward Bradshaw is optimistic the Lions can post a first win against the Swans since round one of 2004.

"The last five or six years they've always given us a bit of trouble – even probably going back to when we won our first premiership in 2001 and were really flying," Bradshaw said.

"They tend to match up pretty well against us and I know we're all pretty keen to get a win against them because it has been so long.

"If we can finish the season on a high it will also give us a bit of confidence to take through to the summer and hopefully to next year as well."

The Swans have made two changes, opting to rest star Adam Goodes (groin) and omitting Patrick Veszpremi. Luke Ablett and Nick Malceski are the inclusions for the 2005 premiers.

Brisbane Lions
B: Joel Macdonald, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Justin Sherman, Jason Roe, Troy Selwood
C: Bradd Dalziell, Simon Black, Jed Adcock
HF: Michael Rischitelli, Jonathan Brown, Tom Collier
F: Scott Harding, Daniel Bradshaw, Anthony Corrie
Foll: Jamie Charman, Luke Power, Jared Brennan
I/C: Pearce Hanley, Albert Proud, Lachlan Henderson, Scott Clouston
EMG: Rhan Hooper, Wayde Mills, James Hawksley

Sydney Swans
B: Leo Barry, Craig Bolton, Martin Mattner
HB: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Ted Richards, Tadhg Kennelly
C: Jared Crouch, Jarrad McVeigh, Craig Bird
HF: Ryan O'Keefe, Heath Grundy, Jarred Moore
F: Amon Buchanan, Barry Hall, Paul Bevan
Foll: Peter Everitt, Brett Kirk, Jude Bolton
I/C: Luke Ablett, Kieren Jack, Darren Jolly, Nick Malceski
EMG: Ryan Brabazon, Luke Brennan, Patrick Veszpremi
In: Ablett, Malceski
Out: Adam Goodes (groin), Patrick Veszpremi

On the punt:

Although history is against them, the Lions' current form stacks up pretty well against that of the Swans – which makes the $2.75 on offer for a win quite attractive. A Lions win of 40 points or less against the notoriously tough Swans is even better value at $3.40.

Daniel Bradshaw might be worth a punt as first goal-scorer at $7, while TAB SportsBet is also running a book on when Hawthorn's Lance Franklin will kick his 100th goal of the season against Carlton on Saturday night. Franklin needs two goals to crack the ton, which makes the first quarter ($2.30) the popular elect.

Key match-up:

Joel Macdonald (Lions) v Ryan O'Keefe (Swans): with Goodes out, O'Keefe becomes perhaps the Swans player most likely to produce something out of the ordinary to hurt the Lions. Nominally a half-forward, O'Keefe virtually plays as a third wingman and covers a lot of ground – making the hard-running Macdonald a likely candidate to get the vital job of restricting his output. O'Keefe had 27 possessions and two goals when the Swans beat the Lions in round three.

Odds and sods:
 
The second quarter could well be pivotal to Saturday night's clash – statistically it's by far the best for the Lions and easily the worst for the Swans. The Lions have won 40 quarters so far in 2008, with 13 of those being second terms. By contrast, the Swans, who have won 47 quarters for the year, have outscored their opposition in 14 third and fourth quarters but only eight second stanzas.

The Swans' struggles to stop other sides from scoring in the second half of the season have been well documented. To illustrate further, Paul Roos' side has already conceded 1810 points after 21 rounds. Putting that in perspective, the 2006 Swans side – which played 25 games en route to a grand final – gave up only 1891 points.

Not only is Daniel Bradshaw poised to top the Lions' goal-kicking list for 2008 – he's also a chance to become the most accurate leading goal-kicker in recent club history. Bradshaw enters round 22 with a score of 73.27, meaning 73 per cent of his scoring shots have been majors. Alastair Lynch's 68.25 from 2000 (73.1 per cent) is the mark to beat.