1. Collingwood
58 points (14 wins, three losses, one draw) 141.99 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 21: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Really, it's all about this weekend for the Magpies. Beat Geelong and Collingwood can pencil in the minor premiership; fall to the Cats and the punditry will again be questioning the team's ability to win the flag. Hawthorn in round 22 is the other game that will test the Pies before they get set for September from either first or second spot.
2. Geelong
56 points (14 wins, four losses), 146.90 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Skilled Stadium
As the number of challengers to their crown diminishes, the Cats keep purring away. The next two weeks will test Geelong's mettle but even if it loses both, a top-four berth is almost assured. And from there, who could doubt Geelong's ability to go all the way?
3. St Kilda
50 points (12 wins, five losses, one draw) 115.62 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Has the Saints' bubble burst? On paper, they should cruise into the top four but the reality is very different. Essendon showed up a slow and stuttering St Kilda that will be under pressure in each of its remaining four games, despite none of those opponents currently being in the eight. A slide to fifth or lower is not out of the question.
4. Western Bulldogs
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 141.27 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
The Crows away will be tough, but the only remaining opponent the Bulldogs will face as outsiders is Geelong in round 20. Even if they lose that the Dogs seem settled in the top four and could push a wobbly St Kilda out of third if the form remains strong. Essendon - in crisis one week, resurgent the next - may prove a tricky opponent in round 22.
5. Fremantle
48 points (12 wins, six losses) 115.62 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Subiaco Oval
Freo smashed West Coast but if derby form won premierships, Mark Harvey's men would be flying dozens of flags from the poles at Fremantle Oval. The test will come next week when Freo faces a North Melbourne team still very much in the finals mix. The Swans (round 20) and Carlton (round 22) are probable wins, but Freo's top-four prospects may come down to round 20's clash with Hawthorn in Tasmania.
6. Hawthorn
38 points (nine wins, eight losses, one draw) 106.71 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
It's suddenly got a lot harder for Hawthorn after Saturday's surprise loss to the Power. The Swans will be struggling for their own survival and will be no easy meat next week, while Melbourne (in round 20) is hot and full of hope. The Hawks then round out the season against Fremantle before shaping up to Collingwood in round 22. Expect Hawthorn to bounce back, but a tough run home makes for little margin for error.
7. Carlton
36 points (nine wins, nine losses), 102.64 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
Carlton is a week-to-week proposition. Terrible against Collingwood on Saturday, the Blues are just as likely to rediscover their touch against Essendon next week. And they will have to if they have designs of holding down a spot in the top eight. Richmond will be itching to cause a boilover, while Geelong (round 21) and Fremantle away (round 22) shape as a nightmare finish to the season.
8. Sydney Swans
36 points (nine wins, nine losses), 101.22 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 20: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at the SCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
The only game the Swans can realistically pencil in for a win is the round-22 encounter against the Lions. Before then, Paul Roos' men must find at least some points against Hawthorn, Fremantle (away) or the Western Bulldogs . . . no easy feat.
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9. North Melbourne
32 points (eight wins, 10 losses) 83.25 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
North keeps losing but so do all the teams around it so finals football is still a distinct possibility. Brad Scott's problem is the draw: it's a tough one. Freo at home next week is winnable but then come the Saints, West Coast in Perth and Melbourne at the 'G. That round-22 clash could yet play as a mini-final with the Demons coming hard at the business end of the season and both the Swans and Blues looking shaky in the eight.
10. Melbourne
30 points (seven wins, 10 losses, one draw), 95.09 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at the MCG
With results falling their way over the weekend, the Demons might just be daring to dream of September. Form and romance are both on Melbourne's side and wins against Richmond, Port (round 21) and North (round 22) are all achievable. Hawthorn in round 20 is a more daunting prospect and how the Demons fare in that fixture may determine their fate.
11. Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, 11 losses) 91.92 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: St Kilda at AAMI Stadium
The Crows' unlikely finals run is all but over after successive losses to Port Adelaide and the Tigers. A loss to the Bulldogs next week would snuff out the flame for good, while Collingwood and St Kilda round out what looms as a very disappointing season for the pride of South Australia.
12. Essendon
28 points (seven wins, 11 losses) 87.19 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
The win against the Saints was stirring stuff but probably came too late for Essendon, which must win all its remaining matches to be a show of seeing September action. And with Collingwood and the Bulldogs looming, that seems unlikely.
13. Port Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, 11 losses), 81.36 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Can the Power win enough games to play finals? No. But they may win enough to make Matthew Primus' coaching career last longer than just a handful of games. A win against an out-of-form St Kilda this week would look very good on the resume.
14. Richmond
24 points (six wins, 12 losses), 73.73 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Strange things indeed would have to occur for Richmond to see September but Sunday's win over the Crows at least keeps its faint hopes flickering. Melbourne suddenly looms as a huge challenge next week, and then the Tigers would have to knock off Carlton and St Kilda to be anywhere near the eight. A tough ask but Richmond will be buoyed no matter how the season finishes off.
15. Brisbane Lions
20 points (five wins, 13 losses) 79.61 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: West Coast at Subiaco Oval
Rd 20: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the Gabba
Fiddle the Bailey Ladders finals predictor enough and you'll find out the Lions are, mathematically, a chance of playing finals. That possibility will disappear with a loss to West Coast at Subi next week. The Lions may yet have to win their remaining games at home to avoid the wooden spoon.
16. West Coast
16 points (four wins, 14 losses), 76.32 per cent
The run home:
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at Subiaco Oval
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Subiaco Oval
Rd 22: Geelong at Skilled Stadium
The Eagles host the Lions next week in what will almost certainly be the battle for the wooden spoon - the only trophy of any sort West Coast has a hope of winning.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
