GEELONG swept to the 2007 AFL premiership with a side many judged to be the finest in years. It seemed the classic embodiment of the idea that clubs develop their lists over a number of years for a tilt at a flag or three, before beginning to rebuild.
So, as we approach round one, how far is your club from a realistic tilt at the premiership?
Taking Geelong’s 2007 list as the benchmark, we’ll look at each team’s list while considering four key factors:
* Age
* Experience
* Height
* Key positions
Of course, we know other, less tangible factors influence a side’s succesor failure, such as injuries, suspensions, team stability, perhaps team spirit, and certainly the small matter of skill. But few of these can be reasonably assessed at the beginning of a year. What can be assessed, we’ll take a look at.
PORT ADELAIDE
BEST 25
B: Jacob Surjan, Alipate Carlile, Toby Thurstans
HB: Michael Pettigrew, Troy Chaplin, Peter Burgoyne
C: Dom Cassisi, Shaun Burgoyne, Steven Salopek
HF: Daniel Motlop, Damon White, Danyle Pearce
F: Brett Ebert, Warren Tredrea, Justin Westhoff
FOLL: Brendon Lade, Chad Cornes, Kane Cornes
I/C: Dean Brogan, David Rodan, Travis Boak, Robbie Gray
EMG: Tom Logan, Greg Bentley, Matt Thomas
The rest of the squad:
Adam Cockshell, Fabian Deluca, Mitch Farmer, Jonathan Giles, Nathan Krakouer, Matthew Lobbe, Nathan Lonie, Nick Lower, Hugh Minson, Marlon Motlop, Paul Stewart, Adam Thomson, Matthew Westhoff, Ryan Williams, Michael Wilson, Daniel Boyle (rookie), Gavin Grose (rookie), Nick Salter (rookie), Ryan Willits (rookie)
Darryl Wakelin (retired) and Brad Symes (Adelaide) are missing from last year's Grand Final team, while Wilson has not been considered due to his long-term Achilles injury. Still, the Power's mix of elite and fine talent, featuring a crack midfield (think C.Cornes, K.Cornes and S.Burgoyne), an excellent ruck division (Lade and Brogan) and several goalkicking options means an impressive squad of 25.
AGE (As at 20 March, 2008)
* 21 years and under: (24)
* 22-25: (12)
* 26-29: (5)
* 30+: (3)
More than half of Port Adelaide's list is 21 years or younger. The high proportion of youngsters point towards a year of development rather than premiership readiness.
MATCHES (As at 20 March, 2008)
* 0 matches: (11)
* 1-25: (13)
* 26-50: (4)
* 51-100: (8)
* 101-200: (6)
* 200: (2)
Only Carlton, Hawthorn and West Coast enter with less experience on their 2008 lists, highlighting the Power's development. Compared to Geelong of 2007 it has seven fewer players in the 26 to100-game bracket, indicating a work in progress in 2008.
HEIGHT (As at 20 March, 2008)
* 184cm and under: (19)
* 185-190cm: (5)
* 191-199cm: (17)
* 200cm+: (3)
The lack of 185-190cm players is significant, but the Power are among the five tallest lists in 2008. This ticks the box in terms of meeting premiership height requirements, but the list is clearly in a development phase.
POSITIONS
* Defenders: (14)
Smalls: (4)
Mediums: (4)
Talls: (6)
* Midfielders: (12)
Smalls: (6)
Mediums: (5)
Talls: (1)
* Forwards: (13)
Smalls: (3)
Mediums: (2)
Talls: (8)
* Rucks: (5)
An analysis of Port Adelaide's positional breakdown shows it is close to the Geelong of 2007, an excellent form guide for premiership readiness. But with almost half of the Power's best 25 still inexperienced; this structure – if kept together – is more suited for the future than the present.
SUMMARY
Port Adelaide defied plenty to bolt into a Grand Final last year. It kept its list healthy and maximised its positives to achieve that result. The question is, can the Power do it again? It's going to be a massive task, considering that it is still developing its list despite boasting some of the finest players in the AFL. It's not too much to expect more September action in 2008, but reaching the pinnacle is only an outside chance.
NUTSHELL
Further development looms before flag does.
