IT'S BEEN a revealing weekend in the Toyota AFL Dream Team competition, and one that has no doubt sent even the most astute and usually collected coaches a tad silly.
It was a volatile round of football, and there was no match more toxic for dream-teamers than the Brisbane Lions' win over Geelong.
If The Little Master's omission on Friday didn't get you, Jimmy's flop would have. And if you escaped Andrew Mackie's late withdrawal then the injured Jed Adcock probably stitched you and your bean counter up. It was that sort of game.
So did anyone see it coming? What's around the corner then? And how can we navigate these last few weeks safely when, let's face it, the trades are slipping away and the coffers are bare?
Finals are three weeks away and I've prepared a few main points to keep in mind when you're spending those last wads to strengthen your final squads.
Send me your thoughts and questions for this week's round to dreamteam@afl.com.au and don't forget to include bank and trade details.
Get maximum moolah
If you're not sure if a player has bottomed out yet, hold! This point can't be overstated and there has been no better example all season than Bartel at the weekend.
Starting the season at $501,800, most coaches chose to leave the DT gun alone until his price came into range. Many, including some faux medical practitioners, would have thought last week's $435,400 was a reasonable time to get on. Wrong. If you held, you would have cottoned on to the fact that Jimmy's sure to dip briefly under $400,000 after his disastrous 49.
There's an added incentive to hold on your trades – even if it's just for one week – and that's avoiding injuries. Coaches that traded Dean Cox out after the split round for his obvious replacement, Aaron Sandilands, know what I mean.
Avoid the dreaded club doctor
The biggest round of the season for DT coaches is round 22 – grand final weekend. But Bomber Thompson, Mark Harvey and the like are already plotting to either send players in for a freshen up on the eve of the (real) finals, or away for season-ending surgery.
Let's run through the list from 2008. DT favourites that missed round 22 but went on to play in the finals included Andrew Mackie (back), Shane Crawford (rested), Dale Thomas (calf) and Adam Goodes (groin). Paul Chapman (hamstring) missed the first two weeks of the DT finals only to come back in round 21 and boot four goals.
Matthew Pavlich (foot), Nathan G. Brown (hip) and Adam Hunter (knee/shoulder) all called curtains early with their sides out of the race and missed the DT finale.
This year, watch out for the sore and sorry Hawks if/when they can mathematically no longer defend their flag. You'll need to have at least one trade in hand for the grand final to cover a Cats' star who will be rested for the last round of the home and away season, and keep an eye on WA's main men Dean Cox and Matthew Pavlich with early pre-seasons probably looking pretty attractive for them right now.
Avoid trades that just look good on paper
There's a temptation late in the season to bolster your squad with big names that look good on paper. But remember, these players are cheap for a reason.
Bringing in Justin Koschitzke ($288,700) or Nick Malceski ($183,200) may give your side experience, but that counts for naught. And unless you're covering injuries that require some tight budgeting, they're wasted trades.
Trade less and just focus on bolstering your squad with one or two players who have hit some ripping form at the right time of the year. Jonathan Brown ($370,600) scored 140 last week and Adam Cooney ($384,100) notched 114. These two genuinely belong at the top end and would be good buys on the eve of the finals.
Reward form, not reputation, when upgrading
You can carry the under-performing big names that are already in your side through the finals if you like, but they won't have an impact. Selection can be ruthless late in the season, and you need to follow suit.
Faced with the decision of upgrading a player like Andrew McLeod ($281,300), who has dropped significantly in price, or a first-year player like Greg Broughton ($335,200), who has peaked in price, keep the young gun and chop the time fighter.
They may be champions, but the numbers don't lie.
Know your (and their) enemy
Opposition analysis is a big deal at AFL clubs and it should be a priority for DT coaches planning to steer their sides successfully through the finals.
Knowing your enemy is a football imperative and your opponent's team from the previous round is there for you to absorb all week. If your reconnaissance reveals the enemy needs to cover Jed Adcock and Daniel Giansiracusa as well as Cox, that gives you the option of keeping the big fella for one more week to see how things play out. Only worrying about your side and rushing to trade the big Eagle could therefore be an avoidable mistake.
Knowing their enemy is an entirely different concept when they are your side's players. Memorise the fixtures (or at least always have them handy) and take the crucial rounds (like rounds 20,21 and 22) into account when you draft in players for the finals.
Nick Riewoldt averages 106.7 against Melbourne, his most productive side to play in DT terms. His Saints face the Demons at the MCG in round 22.
Fremantle, with its depleted midfield, has been leaking big points to opposition onballers in the last month and the Cats are the lucky side that face them at Skilled Stadium in round 22.
Knowing and understanding that could lead to bringing in one of the Cats' stars instead of a Blues' big name, with Carlton facing the ruthless Crows on grand final weekend.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs