Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted David Natoli aka DaVe86 to write this year's match previews. David writes what are arguably, the most popular Magpie previews published on the internet. This is his second season writing for the club website. Please note his views are not of the clubs but of a passionate, knowledgeable member of the Magpie Army.
This week’s preview is dedicated to a true Collingwood supporter Brent who was known on the Internet by his alias ‘Didaka’. Brent passed away after a long fight with cancer this week. During his fight, he always made the time to discuss all things Collingwood and was a regular user of Collingwood discussion boards where I first started writing these previews. I hope Didaka that you get a front row seat from above to watch your beloved Pies take on the Bombers this ANZAC Day.
Sixteen years ago, my Mum took me to the ANZAC Day clash between Collingwood and Essendon. We sat in the very last row, on the top tier of the old Olympic stand. I got a nosebleed from the height. I was nine and was really beginning to fall in love with footy. Little did I realise that I was witnessing the beginning of one of footy’s greatest traditions. The game ended a draw and Collingwood and Essendon would go on to foster, grow and sustain an ANZAC day tradition which has now built into the greatest day on the AFL home-and-away calendar.
This year, I am particularly up beat because it has been some time since both clubs have entered ANZAC Day in such good form. Collingwood sits undefeated on top of the AFL ladder, while Essendon has made an amazing transformation over the off-season into a competitive and skilful unit which will test the Magpies this week.
Such a big occasion deserves an in-depth and comprehensive preview, and that’s what I aim to deliver this week. So let’s get stuck into the analysis.
The Formline
It says something about how strong Collingwood is when an opponent is praised following a 71-point loss. Richmond was genuinely good last week and the Magpies only played two good quarters of football. Yet it was enough for the Magpies to register such a comprehensive victory.
On the other hand, Essendon sits in sixth spot on the ladder despite having a tough fixture to start the year. The Bombers have already faced four of last year’s finalists (including two top four sides), and this week face the reigning premiers. So to get two and a half wins to date is an impressive start and Essendon is well placed to set up its season with a few easier matches to come.
The Bombers played in a thrilling draw last week against Carlton. The general consensus is that Essendon showed a lot of character to scrape a draw following two serious injuries in the first quarter. How Essendon bounces back from such a bruising and taxing game will be a point of interest this week. Fortunately however, this week’s game is played on a Monday so the Bombers get a good break.
Recent History
Collingwood dominates recent history between these two sides, having won the previous three encounters by an average margin of 66 points. Travis Cloke has been dominant, having kicked 13 goals in these matches. Pendlebury, Swan and Didak have also been dominant. Pendlebury polled all six Brownlow votes available in the two matches these sides played last year.
Typically, I would go into greater analysis into previous encounters. However, it is unnecessary this year as Essendon is a completely different side, with a new coach and a totally new game-plan. The best form of analysis can be taken from this year’s NAB Cup Grand Final in which Collingwood eventually won quite comfortably, but were tested right throughout.
Essendon threw absolutely everything at Collingwood after getting jumped early. It came back to be within a kick early into the last quarter. However, the Magpies ran out the game much stronger. The match showed that in order to beat Collingwood, you need to win the clearances and match it in the intensity stakes.
At The Selection Table
Essendon coach James Hird has a bit to think about leading into this week’s ANZAC Day clash after Jason Winderlich and Courtney Dempsey both ruptured their ACL in the first quarter of last week’s match. Mark McVeigh is also nursing a hand injury, which could see him sidelined.
In better news for the Bombers, there are a number of experienced players pushing hard for selection. General Manager of football operations David Hamilton was quoted on essendonfc.com.au that “a number of guys including Alwyn Davey, Kyle Reimers, Michael Hibberd and Ricky Dyson... all made significant contributions” in the VFL last weekend. He also said that David Hille played “a good strong game which was very encouraging. He took quite a few marks and was pretty ferocious with his tackling.” My guess would be that Reimers, Hille and Davey will all come back into the senior side.
For Collingwood, Chris Dawes escaped suspension after he appealed his case to the tribunal so will be free to play this weekend. Therefore, the biggest selection headache for Mick Malthouse will be whether to play Darren Jolly after a minor knee issue or to give Cameron Wood another shot on the biggest possible stage. Andrew Krakouer’s form has been a bit questionable over the last fortnight, but I think he’ll be given another week to try and regain touch. The other worry for Malthouse will be the form of his skipper Nick Maxwell who has not yet regained his sharpness after a scary injury to his kidney’s in the pre-season.
Despite a terrible loss for the VFL Magpies, John McCarthy and Tyson Goldsack continue to impress, as does Lachie Keeffe. All should see game-time shortly. Mick Malthouse generally pulls a selection surprise for ANZAC Day as he uses it as a measuring stick for how young players can handle big occasions. So don’t be surprised to see someone like a John McCarthy as an inclusion this week. Keeffe in particular may be considered if Essendon elect to bring back Hille to stretch the Magpies defence.
Tactics & Match-ups
Essendon has clearly taken a lot out of the Collingwood game plan of 2010 and has implemented a very strong forward press. What has been most impressive about the Bombers this year has been their ability to attack with the same speed as they did under Matthew Knights, whilst also combining a stronger defensive unit.
Essendon was fantastic around the stoppages in the last quarter last week. Led by Jobe Watson, the Bombers were able to really take ascendency in this area. This in turn allows them to get the ball forward and lock it in.
Of particular interest is that when Richmond came back on Collingwood, it was their centre-clearance work that was the most notable feature. No doubt the key battles this week will be throughout the midfield.
Essendon Forward Line:
The Bombers have built a very functional forward line led by Hurley and Ryder. Both are competing strong, although Ryder was very quiet last week. What has been most impressive has been the ability to move Jobe Watson forward at times which has proved highly successful.
Hurley v Tarrant - Hurley was very good in the NAB Cup Grand Final and gave Tarrant a really hard time. He has also put together a very solid month of football and is now looking very settled as a forward. Tarrant’s form nonetheless has been getting better with every game he has played and he is now looking much more settled in the Magpies defence. Hurley needs to compete strongly because Collingwood is very good at getting numbers to cover opposition forwards and in turn run the ball out of defence.
Ryder v Reid - After a disappointing game last week, Ryder will be keen to atone on ANZAC Day, a game he has enjoyed in the past. Reid’s form has been a bit patchy so far this year. He is still a vital component of the Collingwood defence, but has been a bit exposed one out at times. Ryder has a significant height advantage, but I think both players are equally strong body on body. It could be a really telling match-up, especially if Essendon also elect to play Hille and stretch the Magpies defence.
Monfries v Shaw - This match-up often eventuates in Collingwood v Essendon games, and the honours have been pretty even. Monfries’ job will be to make Shaw accountable and try and kick a few goals. He tends to play well on big games, but has been inaccurate with his goal kicking to date this season. Shaw on the other hand has been one of Collingwood’s best in 2011.
Crameri v Maxwell - Crameri has been a real story for the Bombers this year after getting promoted off the rookie list following a great NAB Cup campaign. I think he’ll be sent onto Maxwell to make him accountable. Crameri has proved valuable due to his work-rate and strong marking. Maxwell will have to watch him closely.
Player Note: David Zaharakis - I’ve been really impressed with Zaharakis this year. He is kicking goals and generally harassing opposition defences with his tackling. It was only two years ago where he kicked a final minute goal to give Essendon the lead in a classic ANZAC Day battle, so we all know he loves the big stage.
Player Note: Ben Johnson - Jonno’s form continues to impress. It staggers me to think people still question his spot in the side. Along with Heath Shaw, I think Johnson has been Collingwood’s most consistent player so far this year and he is pushing forward to kick goals as well. He shuts his man down and he is deadly accurate in front of the big sticks.
Midfield
Collingwood will be disappointed that Deledio, Grigg, Martin and Cotchin all had around 30 disposals and were let off the leash in the third quarter in particular last week. So far this year, Collingwood has been very efficient at shutting down opposition midfields. However, Richmond was given a free run and it was able to attack the corridor on numerous occasions. No doubt Malthouse will be looking to clamp down on this area. On the flip side, Essendon will be encouraged to see that quick ball movement and sharp kicking skills can poke holes through the Collingwood zone.
Luke Ball v Jobe Watson - This is the match-up I am most excited about. Both are just relentless clearance players in good form. I doubt they will run with each other around the ground, but both will go head to head around all the stoppages. The winner of this battle will have a very telling impact on the game and expect both to lift for the big occasion. Watson is currently second to Dane Swan for disposals in the competition. Both have been pushing forward as well and have kicked goals in their last few games.
Dane Swan v Heath Hocking - Swan sits clearly in the lead of the competition for disposals, averaging over 35 per game! The question must be asked...how do you stop him? I think the Bombers will throw Hocking onto Swan after he did a decent job on Judd last week. Judd had moments throughout the game where he had a big impact, but only had 24 disposals and was reasonably well held. The biggest part of Swan’s game this year has been his ability to push forward and kick goals. He has kicked 8 so far this year, including four last week.
Player Note: Scott Pendlebury - As I said earlier, Pendlebury polled all six votes against Essendon last year and typically loves playing the Bombers. His form to start 2011 has been very strong and his combination with Swan through the middle is perhaps the best midfield partnership in the competition. I think Hird will elect to use McVeigh in a tagging role against Pendlebury provided McVeigh’s hand is ok. Pendlebury is third in the competition for disposals and is also playing significant game-time up forward.
Player Note: Sam Longergan - James Hird has made a point of sticking his toughest in and under players in the midfield this year and it is having dramatic effect. Last year, Lonergan spent most of his time as a small defensive forward and his form suffered. He rotates nicely with Watson through the middle in 2011 and is in pretty good form. He is still having scoreboard effect, kicking two important goals last week. His intensity is good.
Collingwood Forward Line:
Fourteen individual goal-kickers last week explains the secret of Collingwood’s success. There is no reliance on one individual forward, and everyone is willing to share it around to bring others into the game. Nine goals from stoppages also tells a story of Collingwood’s ability to beat opponents so convincingly. The Magpies have been so dominant in getting the ball inside 50, locking it in and scrounging a goal through some terrific stoppage work. Jarryd Blair has been a real key in this area. His forward 50 pressure has resulted in so many goals to himself and other players. I counted about four goals that came directly from Blair assists last week. I think the biggest area Collingwood can get on top this week is through its small forwards. Without Dempsey, and with Slattery still on the sidelines, I struggle to find enough match-ups for Collingwood’s wealth of small forward options.
Travis Cloke v Cale Hooker - Cloke is in terrific form at the moment and is proving too strong for most opponents. His goal kicking has also improved, although he was back to old habits last week kicking four behinds. Nonetheless, he is averaging three goals a game, which is just what the Magpies need from their focal point. Hooker was also very good last week for Essendon. He took seven marks in the first quarter alone, peeling off Waite nicely to chop off a number of forward 50 entries. He’ll have a big task this week against Cloke.
Chris Dawes v Dustin Fletcher - Fletcher is the toast of the town at the moment following his best on-field display against Carlton. Whether it was his 60 metre goal on the run, his shut-down job on Henderson or his final quarter run down on Jeff Garlett, this 36 year old is defying logic and is still playing terrific football. He is likely to get the job on either Dawes or Leigh Brown this week. It is important that any Collingwood player who is matched up on Fletcher also is mindful of his ability to win a lot of the football and set up play with his booming kick.
Andrew Krakouer v Nathan Lovett-Murray - As I said above, Krakouer’s form has been a bit down over the last fortnight so he needs a big ANZAC Day game to hold his spot. With Dempsey out, I think Hird will use Lovett-Murray on Krakouer.
Steele Sidebottom v Dyson Heppell - Steele regained form last week with three goals and 25 disposals after I was critical of him in last week’s preview. At his best, he is so creative around goals and is one of the sharpest crumbers you will see. Heppell is Essendon’s first round pick last year and has been impressive to date. He has good skills and wants the football, but I don’t think he is attacking the ball with enough intensity just yet. He is a skinny kid but has good work-ethic and should be a real feature of the Bomber’s outfit for the next ten years.
Player Note: Dayne Beams - I’ve made a few mentions of Beams throughout my last few previews, but he deserves another mention this week. He continues to kick goals and win a stack of the football, and I really think he has taken his game to a new level this year. Last week he had 23 possessions and two goals. He is also third in the competition for marks, only one behind Cloke and eight behind Gibbs. This shows his ability to get loose and win a lot of outside footy. It’s important for Collingwood as he is such a good user of the football and generally gets his disposals forward of the centre.
Player Note: Kyle Hardingham - I think he has been one of the real stories of 2011 for Essendon and one of James Hird’s first real victories as a coach. He has been switched from the forward line to defence where his versatility, speed off the mark and closing speed has been a real feature. He is a terrific spoiler and can play on tall or small opponents. He’ll be important for Essendon this week as he’ll play on a variety of opponents from Dayne Beams to Leigh Brown.
The Ruck
It will be interesting to see whether Essendon elect to play Hille along with Ryder and Bellchambers this week. There is no doubt that Essendon’s strongest asset is its ruck division. Bellchambers in particular has been extremely good and has allowed Ryder to play as a permanent forward. Darren Jolly should be back for Collingwood this week, and it will be a real cat and mouse battle as both ruckmen try to push forward. Essendon will look to take advantage of Leigh Brown who will be undersized, but must also be mindful of his ability to win the ball forward of centre. Last week, Graham perhaps beat Wood and Brown in the ruck, but both were able to push forward and kick goals on him, which was very telling. Nonetheless, the Bombers would consider they have the edge in this area. If the Bombers elect to use three ruckmen, expect one to be used as the sub in the last quarter to bring on some pace.
The Wrap-Up
I couldn’t be more excited about this game. It has been a sell-out for weeks now and the atmosphere should be amazing for the players.
Essendon is a very even team across the board. They have a steady backline and forward line, and a decent midfield with a good clearance division. Nonetheless, Collingwood is still a little bit better in every area. It is their greatest test to date due to Essendon’s evenness across the board, but I think the Magpies still possess more class. It will be a fiery opening, but ultimately I think Collingwood has enough answers to get across the line. I can’t see Essendon containing all of Collingwood’s goal-kicking options.
However, if Essendon can get the ascendency in the ruck and win a lot of clearances, then they are a real show to hand Collingwood their first loss of the season.
Collingwood by 22
By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86
