Peter Ryan, AFL Record writer: The three top teams are genuinely good sides with Hawthorn the unlucky loser. It seems to me Alastair Clarkson's response to the heartbreaking loss on Friday night was appropriate. Apart from the obvious answer of 'four points', what do you think was the difference between winning and losing for the Hawks?
Michael Lovett, AFL Record writer: Simply didn't take their chances. Not sure how you coach for that but the Hawks were 2-3 missed shots away from burying the Pies. The pain of defeat will provide a good spur for 2012, not to mention the return of (Jarryd) Roughead and (Stephen) Gilham.
Callum Twomey, AFL Record writer: Clarkson summed it up, didn't he? Not good enough for long enough. If the Hawks could have just held control of the game for another 10 minutes in that last quarter they would be playing on Saturday. Perhaps that lack of finals experience from their group of young players - Schoenmakers, Puopolo, Smith, Whitecross etc - also didn't help, but they will benefit from this preliminary final loss like Collingwood did in 2007 when they were beaten by the Cats in similar style.
Ashley Browne, afl.com.au writer: It was a brilliant performance for much of the night. But there is an argument to suggest they made a mistake at selection. Given the way the game unfolded, they might have been better off in the last quarter with either a fresh hard runner - Shane Savage - or Luke Bruest, who may have been able to jag the goal that Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo couldn't. Matt Suckling didn't add all that much.
Collins: Amazed that Suckling was the sub, considering his rocket-launching left-footers would have been ideal against the Pies press.
Ryan: They were stiff with the Suckling call as no-one could guarantee Stratton would stand up the whole game, but you're right Ash in hindsight.
Ben Collins, AFL Record writer: They obviously didn't do much wrong, but in the last quarter they just didn't sustain their intensity, particularly around the stoppages, and didn't maintain their system, decision-making and skill execution which had both been quite high for the first three quarters. In the end, they had no answer for Travis Cloke, who was just a colossus in the last quarter, and Dane Swan got better as the game wore on.
Geoff Slattery, Managing Editor AFL Media: Hawthorn lost the match via a multitude of errors and poor decisions made under pressure in the last quarter. How that happened we will never know: the best theory I've heard is that the week's break has more value than we will ever know, and the fatigue in the legs of the Hawks led to miskicks and misjudgments. Chance Bateman was running on empty after missing so many games through the year: from round 14 he played just five games, most of them on the bench. The dropped mark by Ryan Schoenmakers was an error that he will never want to see again, but there were more: when Dane Swan kicked that goal from the boundary, Matt Suckling didn't hit the contest hard enough; and Luke Ball had so much space he could have lined up rather than swing onto the boot. For all that, the brilliance and power of Cloke probably would have overcome any team. In short, Clarkson was right: not tough enough for long enough.
Ryan: The third man up tactic at stoppage failed them too in the last quarter whereas it worked well for the first three in the ball clearing the pack around the ball-up. Those punches just did not have the legs they had earlier in the game. Hawthorn's hardness could not be questioned nor their gameplan. These sorts of losses I'm guessing teach people the importance of taking their chances so they just go back and work on technique harder and for longer. Travis Cloke took his chance (although he fluffed one early in the quarter) and it was a credit to his hard work and faith in his routine. I reckon Bateman was the classic case of being tired and his body not being able to do what it once could so brilliantly. A couple of his kicks were just five metres short of where he wanted them to go and his quick pirouettes out of trouble when men were bearing down on him that he has been so good at for the whole of his career were just that split second off.
Can the Hawks come again?
Ryan: What do the Hawks need next year to bridge the gap?
Twomey: Obviously a bit of injury luck will go a long way. Put the experience of Gilham and Roughead back into that side on Friday and it could have been a different story. They appear to have most other bases covered.
Browne: Friday night showed that the Hawks can expect to contend for a flag in the next two years. Interesting to see where Jarryd Roughead fits into the mix. There are already cries for him to play down back. Not sure he can ruck any more on a rebuilt Achilles.
Lovett: Put more work into their young players. Another pre-season and summer in the gym will do wonder for Isaac Smith, and as Ash said they have to back players like Savage and Breust. Lisle is a big body and I'd be taking a punt on him as well. The Cameron Bruce experiment didn't work but David Hale probably did so it will be interesting to see if they are active in trade week or plucking recycled players at the draft.
Slattery: Hawthorn don't need much at all: add Gilham, Roughead and a fitter Stratton to the mix; the improvement that will come from Breust, Savage, Suckling, Puopolo, and who knows what might come from trade week and the draft. History also shows that big disappointments in the preliminary final week can lead to better things the following year. We must remember that Hodge, Franklin, Rioli, Lewis are at their peak and will remain so for some years. Be interesting to see whether the GWS drums are right about Sam Mitchell.
Collins: They're not far off as it is, and natural improvement from the bevy of young blokes, along with maintained consistency from their best players (with a bit more out of Cyril, who will be sparked into action by his poor finals series), and the expected return of Roughy (although achilles problems have a habit of lingering), should have them thereabouts. They are almost on a par with Collingwood and the ageing Geelong side isn't expected to be as dominant next year, giving the Hawks another huge opportunity.
Ryan: Cyril, poor finals series: are you serious? He was brilliant in first half against Swans and all but perfect Friday night bar that last moment.
Collins: Yes, Pete, I reckon Cyril was uncharacteristically poor in the finals. Zero impact against Geelong, a good half against the Swans when everyone was playing well, and moderate against the Pies. His performances didn't come anywhere near matching what was expected from him.
Browne: Bad call, Benny. Cyril redeemed himself in the last two finals.
Slattery: Rioli showed the way in the first half against Sydney, and was superb against Collingwood. That last moment was not a failure by him: there was nobody ahead of him to kick to with any positivity.
Ryan: I thought Rioli and Puopolo's pressure disrupted Collingwood's defence and were a big factor in the game.
The Eagles finish no reflection on season
Ryan: The West Coast Eagles ran out of legs in the finish. Are they natural improvers or do Dean Cox and Daniel Kerr and Darren Glass need to repeat their seasons for the club to win a top four spot again?
Twomey: Good question. There's still a huge reliance on that trio. Each of them seems to have a disciple of sorts - Glass has Eric Mackenzie, Cox has Nic Naitanui and Kerr has Luke Shuey - but much still revolves around the Eagles' senior group. They'll need to play at about the same level and hope for the same level of improvement in the younger players if the Eagles are to take the next step in 2012.
Lovett: Like some of the Hawks the previous night, Cox and Kerr were running on empty and Glass looked like he was trying to plug holes everywhere. Had a good look at their list after the game and they are well placed for another top-four finish. Just about impossible to beat at home and their harder edge means they can win on the road. Nic Nat was outstanding in a well-beaten side and it was interesting he started at the opening bounce. Might need another key defender and another emerging midfielder but I think they have a team for 'now' and they won't be all that active at trade time.
Browne: Not sure about West Coast. Looked, played and sounded like it was just happy to be there. But if they win 12 from 13 at home again, they'll almost surely be top 4 or at worst, top 6. NicNat was outstanding in the final, but Daniel Kerr needs more of a chop-out. Geelong really worked him over.
Slattery: West Coast will have the same momentum as Hawthorn: a preliminary final loss often leads to better things the following year. Daff, Shuey, Darling and Waters are foundations of a great future. Cox ALMOST got through a season without injury, but was clearly hampered at the end. He'll be 31 in August, which suggests he won't be getting better. Kerr is a truly great player. Let's hope he can go through injury-free.
Ryan: The Eagles, as Mark Macgugan pointed out post-match on Saturday had a similar run to Collingwood's 2009 finals series, brave in first final, tight win at home then all over by preliminary final. They will improve and have gained enormous belief.
The Big One
Ryan: Now to the Grand Final: Collingwood v Geelong Grand Final has many subplots. Does Collingwood need to (or can it) change its style of play to defeat the Cats on Saturday?
Slattery: The Grand Final is a toss of the coin, but the coin toss will be affected by the capacity of Darren Jolly to play or not play. Without him, the balance falls to Geelong, because of the Ottens factor. He's so important for obvious reasons: not the least of which that big men seem to stand out in Grand Finals in the modern era. Think of Keating for the Lions, Cox for the Eagles, Jolly for Swans and Collingwood, and of course Ottens.
Browne: It will start in the centre for Collingwood. Win some contested ball - which it didn't do in round 24 - and they Pies are in the game up to their eyeballs. Swan, Pendlebury and Ball need to gets their hands on the ball. Which, as Geoff says, is why Jolly's health is so critical. He hasn't been in brilliant touch, but he's a better option in a Grand Final than Cameron Wood.
Ryan: Cameron Wood can do a job for one game (and beyond he would grow from the experience) but it is a huge ask particularly with Brown less effective in recent weeks. I suspect forward pressure is the key. Blair, Sidebottom, Krakouer, Beams or Fasolo can all improve although they battled hard on Friday night. Collingwood have had no crumbers since round 21.
Lovett: It was interesting the Pies freed themselves up against the Hawks when they took risks through the corridor. I think this is where they have to take the Cats on. Corridor footy will play into Geelong's hands because the Cats like to defend along the boundary and build attacks through the guts (witness Jimmy Bartel's slick handball to Joel Selwood for a goal in the second quarter on Saturday).
Slattery: Some myth here about freeing themselves up and running wide and hard etc. Some of that was to do with poor defensive skills by Hawthorn given the fatigue factor we discussed earlier. A bigger key for Collingwood is to get more from Thomas, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Beams and co. Remember how good this group was in the GF replay last year. Some of that will also depend on whether Geelong can hold the same level of defensive strength and stoppage excellence that Hawthorn showed in those first three quarters. You can't run free if you ain't got a free shot at the ball.
Ryan: Yep, I suspect Geelong would have battled against Hawthorn on Friday night too.
Twomey: Nick Maxwell has said they need to be less predictable, which is fair enough. Finding a way to get Chris Dawes more involved in the game would also go a long way to getting Collingwood another flag. He chipped in on Friday night but I reckon could just do so much more. The unpredictability comes from individuals as well as game plans. Alan Didak and Andrew Krakouer can provide that, but didn't on Friday. Will be interesting to see if they change a lot for the biggest game of the year. I doubt they will. Perhaps more interesting is the Collingwood supporters palming off the favouritism to Geelong.
Browne: Does Beams play?
Ryan: He is obviously under pressure to hold his spot particularly with Alex Fasolo and Tyson Goldsack both stiff to miss out last week. Fasolo struggled against Geelong so not sure what the thinking will be. Reid's fitness question mark will play a role too. Goldsack is versatile.
Twomey: Beams had an off night but has been pretty good in the latter stages of the season and is a hard body capable of doing what Fasolo does anyway. I'd keep him in, and maybe green vest him.
The Malthouse factor
Ryan: What role will the Mick Malthouse 'last game' factor have on the team's preparation?
Lovett: Mick said yesterday he won't even be mentioning it but I suspect within the playing group there will be a "do it for Mick" theme. If he was teary after a prelim final win, they better bring buckets to the G on Saturday if the Pies win...won't be a dry eye in the house!
Browne: If 'win it for Mick' is the main motivator for the Pies then they might as well not show up. I think it will be business as usual for Mick and the Pies this week. But we might all be reaching the hankies at the end, irrespective of the result.
Slattery: Before we go, we must note that Mick Malthouse will NEVER coach again. It's a fascinating farewell, his eighth Grand Final. Although Hawk fans will not agree, it would have been somewhat of a flat finale to bow out last week. The Malthouse coaching model should be eternal: a senior person, using guile, experience, man management, love even, to manage not just a playing group, and a football department, but also the club's executive, board, and fans. Good luck to him, whatever might happen on Saturday. I'm sure his influence will be felt for many years at Collingwood, and broader through his certain role in the media post-2011.
Browne: You've been strong on that for the past year, Geoff. And I agree. At his stage in life, I don't think he has has the stamina or the motivation to walk into a new organisation and rebuild it from the ground up. But I wouldn't rule out a return to Richmond somewhere later on. It is the club he is on record as saying he most feels at home at.
Ryan: Mick's emotions after the game showed what he is like. He knows - as all good coaches do - he demands of young men what no one can reasonably expect to bring out the best in them and see them achieve what he thinks they're capable of. To see blokes like Thomas, Swan, Tarrant, Cloke, Maxwell, Dawes perform under such pressure when he has had faith in them all along must make him very proud. People forget what Collingwood was like at the start of his reign and he and many others have made them a resilient, brave, tight bunch.
The Cats' Injuries
Ryan: If Steve Johnson is out injured, who does Geelong bring in as a replacement?
Lovett: Steve Johnson will play but in the highly unlikely event he doesn't, Shannon Byrnes should come in. No time now for sentiment with Milburn and Mooney and Byrnes gives you pace and he is clever around goal.
Ryan: Byrnes, interesting call. A great sub player, was brilliant in last quarter in 2009 Grand Final and very good late against Adelaide in round 21 this year.
Twomey: I'd also be going with Byrnes ahead of the other two as Stevie J's replacement. Adds speed and knows where the goals are. Unlucky for Milburn and Mooney but both have had their fair share of success.
Brownlow Medal
Ryan: Can we have your 3-2-1 predictions for the Brownlow Medal?
Lovett: Goodes for mine, just in front of Juddy and Gazza.
Slattery: Brownlow tips: I reckon Sam Mitchell will lead the poll at the end to make for a really great weekend for Hawthorn fans, and we'll spend the rest of the week debating the rights and wrongs of 100+ points making for ineligibility. What most people don't know is that in 1924 when the VFL instituted the Medal the original criteria was Best and Fairest, and two paras later in the same paper it was Fairest and Best. That Mitchell could play a game (after 25 per cent discount), and not be eligible is absurd, when you consider the Medal is now 86 years old, and for 80 of those years, players with reprimands were eligible. After Mitchell, will come Pendlebury, Goodes, Ablett.
Twomey: It's hard to go past Judd or Goodes. Matthew Boyd would have been a real chance had the Bulldogs won a few more games this year. My tip is Jobe Watson to be leading at half-way.
Browne: Judd to beat Goodes. Mitchell to cause some anxious moments.
Ryan: Like Chris Smith, the non-invited leader well into the count in 1980 and Dane Swan in the Superman suit in 2007. Pendlebury ahead of Mitchell and Murphy are my Brownlow predictions.
Collins: Judd and Goodes are my Brownlow tips.
