1. Richmond

40 points (10 wins, three losses), 135.0 per cent
If the Tigers' loss to Port Adelaide in round 12 showed some shaky signs, they wasted no time steadying the ship against another heavyweight the following Sunday. Their 18-point win over Geelong proved their steely resolve and manic pressure hasn't deserted them, and in turn sent an ominous threat to the rest of the competition. Coming games against Sydney, Adelaide and GWS are likely to frank the Tigers' status as the team to beat, particularly with Daniel Rioli back, and Dion Prestia and Bachar Houli to resume in the weeks following the bye. - Jennifer Phelan

The run home
R15: Sydney @ Etihad Stadium
R16: Adelaide @ MCG
R17: Greater Western Sydney @ Spotless Stadium
R18: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
R19: Collingwood @ MCG
R20: Geelong @ MCG
R21: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R22: Essendon @ MCG
R23: Western Bulldogs @ MCG

2. Sydney

40 points (10 wins, three losses), 125.7 per cent
Nestled nicely inside the top four on the back of six straight wins, the Swans face their toughest test against Richmond at Etihad Stadium off this week's bye. They've beaten West Coast in Perth, Geelong at the Cattery and Hawthorn at the MCG this year, so they'll relish the chance to get on the big stage of Thursday night footy against the premiers. Games against the Cats (SCG) and North Melbourne (Etihad) follow and the next three could shape their finishing spot. - Adam Curley

The run home
R15: Richmond @ Etihad Stadium
R16: Geelong @ SCG
R17: North Melbourne @ Etihad Stadium
R18: Gold Coast @ SCG
R19: Essendon @ Etihad Stadium
R20: Collingwood @ SCG
R21: Melbourne @ MCG
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Spotless Stadium
R23: Hawthorn @ SCG 

FROM THE TWOS Demon's seven-goal haul

3. West Coast

40 points (10 wins, three losses), 123.9 per cent
Dropping a home game to Essendon has put the Eagles under serious pressure to hold on to a top-four spot. The Crows have been a rabble, but West Coast is no certainty to regain spearhead Josh Kennedy next week and looked toothless without him and Jack Darling. The next three games could be season-defining. If the Eagles can't win at least one of the next three their hopes of a double-chance will be on very shaky ground, and winning a premiership from Perth is almost impossible without finishing with a double chance. - Travis King

The run home
R15: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R16: Greater Western Sydney @ Optus Stadium
R17: Collingwood @ MCG
R18: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium
R19: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium
R23: Brisbane @ Gabba

The Eagles' shock loss to the Bombers sent them down to third. Picture: AFL Photos

4. Collingwood

36 points (nine wins, four losses), 119.4 per cent
The Pies still have three road trips remaining, but will relish their winnable games at the MCG. A five-game stretch against fellow finals hopefuls Essendon, West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond and Sydney will likely decide Collingwood's season. However, four of those five matches are on the club's home turf. Their percentage is also among the best in the competition and will help them in their quest to return to September. They might only need three or four more wins to secure a spot in the top eight. - Riley Beveridge

The run home
R15: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R16: Essendon @ MCG
R17: West Coast @ MCG
R18: North Melbourne @ MCG
R19: Richmond @ MCG
R20: Sydney @ SCG
R21: Brisbane @ Etihad Stadium
R22: Port Adelaide @ MCG
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium

5. Port Adelaide

36 points (nine wins, four losses), 113.9 per cent
The Power have a great opportunity to cement their spot in the top four, with their next six games against sides currently outside the top eight. The round 21 encounter with West Coast at Adelaide Oval looms as a massive contest, as does the following week's trip to the MCG to face Collingwood. The Power's round 23 opponent, Essendon, could be the wildcard, if it goes on a late-season surge. Experienced defender Matthew Broadbent will be a welcome addition to the side when he returns from an ankle injury at the back-end of the season. - Lee Gaskin

The run home
R15: Carlton @ MCG
R16: St Kilda @ Adelaide Oval
R17: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R18: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R19: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium, Ballarat
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R21: West Coast @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Collingwood @ MCG
R23: Essendon @ Adelaide Oval 

THINGS WE LEARNED Charlie could go to Arden St

Port is looking primed for a top-four tilt. Picture: AFL Photos

6. Melbourne

32 points (eight wins, five losses), 127.3 per cent
The Demons will be warm favourites in their next three games against St Kilda, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs before they face a big test against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium in round 18. Round 21 and 22 will also be crucial to their September chances, when they take on Sydney (MCG) and West Coast (Optus Stadium) in successive weeks. Apart from defender Jake Lever, out for the season with a knee injury, the Demons are at full strength. - Lee Gaskin

The run home
R15: St Kilda @ MCG
R16: Fremantle @ TIO Stadium, Darwin
R17: Western Bulldogs @ MCG
R18: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R19: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R20: Gold Coast @ MCG
R21: Sydney @ MCG
R22: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ MCG 

7. Geelong 

32 points (eight wins, five losses), 126.2 per cent
The Cats face three teams above them in matches that will determine whether they can break into the top four. Back-to-back trips to Sydney and Adelaide on Thursday nights before a home clash with Melbourne loom as a crucial three-week block. With a minimum of 14 of 15 wins required to earn the double chance, it may well be decided before round 22. The Cats face Fremantle and Gold Coast at home in games they'll be expecting to bank. - Mitch Cleary

The run home
R15: Western Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium
R16: Sydney @ SCG
R17: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R18: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium
R19: Brisbane @ GMHBA Stadium
R20: Richmond @ MCG
R21: Hawthorn @ MCG
R22: Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium
R23: Gold Coast @ GMHBA Stadium 

TRADE OR HOLD? Fantasy form watch: round 14

8. North Melbourne

32 points (eight wins, five losses), 117 per cent
That was an enormously important win by the Kangas on Saturday night against the Western Bulldogs and if they end up making the finals, it might be because of the brilliance and quick-thinking of Ben Brown, who soccered the ball to Jack Ziebell who then kicked the match-winner with 20 seconds to go. They have some tough games to come, starting with the resurgent Bombers at Etihad Stadium next Sunday. The Hawks, Giants and Bombers are on their tail in the race for what is likely one finals berth only, so next week is a virtual eight-point game in that they can eliminate one of their challengers. - Ashley Browne 

The run home
R15: Essendon @ Etihad Stadium
R16: Gold Coast @ Etihad Stadium
R17: Sydney @ Etihad Stadium
R18: Collingwood @ MCG
R19: West Coast @ Blundstone Arena
R20: Brisbane @ Gabba
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium
R22: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R23: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium 

9. Hawthorn 

32 points (eight wins, five losses), 115.6 per cent
The Hawks are right in the mix for finals footy, but face their fair share of potentially tricky fixtures on the way home including next week away to the resurgent Giants, round 21 against the Cats and a trip to the SCG to take on the Swans in the final round – a match which might just decide their September fate. Could really have done themselves a big favour in terms of percentage if they’d kicked truly against the Suns on Saturday. - Stu Warren

The run home
R15: Greater Western Sydney @ Spotless Stadium
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Etihad Stadium
R17: Brisbane @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R18: Carlton @ Etihad Stadium
R19: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R20: Essendon @ MCG
R21: Geelong @ MCG
R22: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
R23: Sydney @ SCG 

10. Greater Western Sydney

30 points (seven wins, five losses, one draw), 113.7 per cent
The Giants will be sweating on the availability of Jeremy Cameron with a tough month ahead that could determine their season. Everything starts on Saturday night with a monster home match against an equally desperate Hawthorn at Spotless Stadium. Regardless of whether Cameron plays or not, the Giants would fancy their chances against anyone after three straight wins and their A-grade midfield starting to roar again. - Michael Whiting

The run home
R15: Hawthorn @ Spotless Stadium
R16: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R17: Richmond @ Spotless Stadium
R18: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R19: St Kilda @ Spotless Stadium
R20: Carlton @ Etihad Stadium
R21: Adelaide @ UNSW Canberra Oval
R22: Sydney @ Spotless Stadium
R23: Melbourne @ MCG

Will the likely absence of Jeremy Cameron spell the end of the Giants' finals hopes? Picture: AFL Photos

11. Adelaide

24 points (six wins, seven losses), 100.4 per cent
Plenty of news out of West Lakes lately and none of the good kind. The Crows' 56-point loss to Hawthorn last Saturday night was one of the club's worst; they failed to score in the third quarter, which was just the seventh time in history they've gone scoreless across an entire term, and it was their third-lowest score ever. It won't get any easier either - they now face three consecutive top-eight sides, starting with West Coast, and Eddie Betts is sidelined for a month with a hamstring. - Jennifer Phelan

The run home
R15: West Coast @ Adelaide Oval
R16: Richmond @ MCG
R17: Geelong @ Adelaide Oval
R18: Brisbane @ Gabba
R19: Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval
R20: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R21: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval
R22: North Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Carlton @ Etihad Stadium 

12. Essendon

24 points (six wins, seven losses), 93.2 per cent
The Bombers looked almost dead and buried but a shock win over West Coast has given them renewed hope of making finals and their next two games are huge. They probably need to beat at least one of North Melbourne or Collingwood, and then get past the Suns and Freo to set themselves up with a shot at clinching three of the final five games to reach the magical 12-win mark. Essendon is playing much-improved footy and can't be discounted yet, although there is still a mountain to climb. - Travis King

The run home
R15: North Melbourne @ Etihad Stadium
R16: Collingwood @ MCG
R17: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R18: Fremantle @ Etihad Stadium
R19: Sydney @ Etihad Stadium
R20: Hawthorn @ MCG
R21: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
R22: Richmond @ MCG
R23: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval 

13. Fremantle

24 points (six wins, seven losses), 88.7 per cent
While reaching finals remains theoretically possible the Dockers should aim high but the reality is they will only start strong favourites in two more games, against Brisbane after the bye and Carlton in round 22. Freo would then need to knock over at least four of Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn, West Coast and Geelong to even be a contender. Even the most one-eyed fan would find it tough to convince themselves that is likely. - Travis King

The run home
R15: Brisbane @ Optus Stadium
R16: Melbourne @ TIO Stadium, Darwin
R17: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium
R18: Essendon @ Etihad Stadium
R19: Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium
R20: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R21: Carlton @ Optus Stadium
R22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R23: Collingwood @ Optus Stadium 

14. Western Bulldogs

16 points (four wins, nine losses), 74.6 per cent
The Dogs would need to win out from here, and handsomely most weeks, to make it from here. That ain't happening. - Ashley Browne

The run home
R15: Geelong @ Etihad Stadium
R16: Hawthorn @ Etihad Stadium
R17: Melbourne @ MCG
R18: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R19: Port Adelaide @ Mars Stadium, Ballarat
R20: St Kilda @ Etihad Stadium
R21: North Melbourne @ Etihad Stadium
R22: Carlton @ Etihad Stadium
R23: Richmond @ MCG