Where and when: MCG, Saturday September 20, 7pm
Head to head: Hawthorn 73 wins, St Kilda 70 wins, one draw
Last time: St Kilda 18.11 (119) d Hawthorn 13.11 (89), round 16, 2007, at Telstra Dome
Last finals meeting: Hawthorn 12.10 (82) d St Kilda 11.9 (75), Grand Final, 1971, at the MCG
SUMMARY
Things are going pretty well for Alastair Clarkson and his Hawks. They had the perfect first-up finals performance, easily disposing of the Western Bulldogs and being rewarded with a week off. This week the pressure goes up when more than three-quarters of the team runs out for their first preliminary final. A couple of players haven’t had the ideal preparation, with Chance Bateman’s rolled ankle on Tuesday throwing a scare through the camp. But there’s no doubt that despite going down to St Kilda by five goals two months ago – and the Saints having the wood on his men in recent history – Clarkson should be confident his game plan will stack up in their biggest test yet.
St Kilda, after being beaten by the Cats in their qualifying final, bounced back in fine style against Collingwood last week. The two Nicks - Dal Santo and Riewoldt - led the way while evergreen veteran Robert Harvey also showed why his 382 games will hold the Saints in good stead against the Hawks. Ross Lyon's men were able to play the match on their terms, something they simply weren't able to do against Geelong the previous week, while they made the Magpies' forward entries look like amateur hour. Replicating that against arguably the most potent attacking duo - Lance 'Buddy' Franklin and Jarryd Roughead - in the business will be the key this week.
MEDICAL ROOM
Hawthorn
Max Bailey (knee) - season
Chance Bateman (ankle) - test
Grant Birchall (corked hip) - available
Trent Croad (foot) - available
Rick Ladson (shoulder) - available
Luke McEntee (hamstring) - season
Ben McGlynn (knee) - 2-3 weeks
Garry Moss (groin) - season
Beau Muston (knee) - season
Cameron Stokes (corked quad) - available
St Kilda
Jarryd Allen (hip) - TBA
Jayden Attard (knee) - season
Steven Baker (knee) - season
Luke Ball (hamstring) - test
Eljay Connors (shoulder) - season
Sean Dempster (knee) - season
Matt Maguire (foot) - season
Luke van Rheenen (foot) - season
STRENGTHS
Hawthorn
The Hawks’ potent forward line looms as its main weapon in this one. While some have pointed the finger at an over-reliance on Franklin, Hawthorn has a variety of options when streaming into attack and those men could prove decisive.
St Kilda
While the Hawks have options, the Saints’ back six get back in numbers to help and know when to slow the tempo of a match. On paper, Ross Lyon’s men stack up as well as any team against Hawthorn. It looms as an intriguing preliminary final, and the performance of St Kilda’s defence will decide the result.
WEAKNESSES
Hawthorn
Should the Saints’ backline get on top, it’d be nice if your midfield could chip in for a few goals. This hasn’t been a strength at Hawthorn this year. Sam Mitchell (three goals), Brad Sewell (seven), and Jordan Lewis (six) turn the key to the Hawks’ engine, but if they could get up front a little more it sure would help ease a little pressure on Alastair Clarkson’s main strike pair.
St Kilda
Do the Saints have enough options in attack to get over the line? Put simply, Nick Riewoldt must fire for St Kilda to win. If he doesn’t go off again, one doubts whether Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, James Gwilt and Adam Schneider have enough bang to blast the Hawks out of the premiership race.
GAMEBREAKER
Hawthorn
It has to be Buddy, doesn’t it? This guy seems like he was born to play finals, to be under the bright lights and on the biggest of stages. He booted a lazy eight against the Bulldogs a fortnight back, and while Max Hudghton or Sam Fisher will provide stern tests, he will be champing at the bit to get out there for another run.
St Kilda
Nick Riewoldt. Like the champion he is, the Saints skipper stood tall when his side needed him most last week. But that’s all in the past now, and he will need an encore performace against the Hawks – the team he booted six goals against in round 16 – if St Kilda is to progress to the big one.
X-FACTOR
Big-game experience. More than a dozen Saints have been to this point in a final series before. On the other side of the ledger, only a handful of Hawks have ever played in a preliminary final. There is certain to be plenty of nerves in both change rooms before the bounce, but will the Saints – with veterans such as Robert Harvey and Max Hudghton – be a touch more relaxed and cope with the big stage a little better?
PREDICTION:
Hawthorn by 26 points.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
