LAST week saw thrills and spills aplenty and this round should be no different. The Blues have their backs to the wall, the Saints actually need a win and of course, the blockbuster of the season is upon us Saturday night when Geelong takes on Collingwood. Anything could happen this weekend, so the Mozz might just be enough to get you over the line!

Essendon vs. Carlton

Why the Bombers win:

•  Essendon has a remarkable hold over the Blues, winning the last six contests between the sides.
  

Why the Blues win:

•  Carlton has won its last two round 19 matches, including a surprise win over powerhouse Geelong this time last year. In contrast, the Bombers have won just one of their last six in this round.

The Market*: Essendon $2.12, Carlton $1.87

The Mozz: Essendon has definitely got it over Carlton - which should make selecting a winner here easy. However, the Blues have their backs to the wall after a disappointing show last week against the Pies. Will they rise up to the occasion and deliver on their early-season promise? The Mozz says yes!

Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn

Why the Swans win:

• Hawthorn has managed only one win from its past 11 matches played in Sydney.

Why the Hawks win:

•  The Hawks have had the better of the Swans in recent seasons, winning three of the last four matches between the sides.

The Market*: Sydney $2.12, Hawthorn $1.83

The Mozz: There’s a match on Saturday night that has got everyone’s attention, so this one could fade into insignificance despite its relevance to September. Both sides lost matches they could have won last week so it’s hard to say who’s got the edge - but we’ll go with the Swans to make the most of the home ground advantage and keep their finals hopes alive.

North Melbourne vs. Fremantle

Why the Kangaroos win:

•   Fremantle has never defeated North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium.

Why Freo win:

•  Fremantle thrashed North Melbourne when the sides met in round 10 this season at Subiaco Oval, to the tune of 61 points - their greatest-ever winning margin over the Kangaroos.

The Market*: North Melbourne $1.94, Fremantle $2.04

The Mozz: Another game with serious September relevance but zero buzz due to Saturday night’s blockbuster, this one could actually shape up to be an interesting clash. Freo had been sliding the slippery slope down the ladder until delivering a steadying blow to cross-town rival the Eagles last weekend. They should account for North - just.

Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood

Why the Cats win:

•  It’s been all Geelong in recent contests between these sides. The Cats have won the last three matches and five of the last six - including two preliminary final victories.
  

Why the Magpies win:

•  Amazingly these sides have met only once previously in round 19 - in 1974 at Skilled Stadium. Collingwood won by 23 points.

The Market*: Geelong $1.89, Collingwood $2.10

The Mozz: The Cats have shown us time and time again why they are champions and have nothing to prove - other than the fact they’re still the cream of the crop. Collingwood meanwhile will be desperate to assert itself as a genuine flag threat against the measuring stick of the past four seasons. The Mozz will go with the challenger - Magpies to take the points.

West Coast vs. Brisbane Lions

Why the Eagles win:

• The Eagles have dominated clashes between these sides at Subiaco Oval, winning 10 matches to the Lions' two, including the most recent back in round one, 2008.

Why the Lions win:

• The Lions have had the edge over the Eagles recently, winning the last three matches between the sides and four of the last five.

The Market*: West Coast $1.71, Brisbane Lions $2.36

The Mozz: Things couldn’t get much worse for either side at the moment. Given its being played over in the West and the Lions’ haven’t ever fared too well against the Eagles at home, you’d have to say John Worsfold’s boys should get the job done.

St Kilda vs. Port Adelaide

Why the Saints win:

• Under Ross Lyon, St Kilda has lost just one of 15 clashes with non-Victorian sides at Etihad Stadium. The Saints only defeat was to West Coast late in 2007 and since then they have won 11 straight against interstate opponents at the venue.

Why the Power win:

•  These sides have met on 20 occasions and Port Adelaide holds the overall advantage with 12 wins to St Kilda’s eight.

The Market*: St Kilda $1.25, Port Adelaide $4.60

The Mozz: The Saints were incredibly disappointing against the resurgent Bombers last week and barely fired a shot. Don’t expect Port to get over the line - four weeks out from September, St Kilda won’t stand for another shocker and should win comfortably.

Melbourne vs. Richmond

Why the Demons win:

• Melbourne comfortably defeated Richmond in round four this season, by 55 points at the MCG.

Why the Tigers win:

• Despite struggling in recent seasons, the Tigers have enjoyed a measure of success against the Demons, winning four of the six matches played between the sides since 2007.

The Market*: Melbourne $1.56, Richmond $2.68

The Mozz: Believe it or not, the Demons still have the faintest chance of making the finals, while Richmond is back in town after another win last week. Melbourne’s youngsters might just be a little too classy for the spirited Tigers but it will no doubt be a cracking contest and anything could happen.

Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs

Why the Crows win:

• Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs have met only twice previously in a Sunday twilight match and the Crows won on both occasions.

Why the Bulldogs win:

• The Western Bulldogs were too strong for Adelaide when these sides met in round five this season at Etihad Stadium. The Bulldogs' 49-point victory was the biggest winning margin between the sides since Adelaide won by 77 points in 2006.

The Market*: Adelaide $3.50, Western Bulldogs $1.39

The Mozz: The Bulldogs are flying under the radar at the moment, quietly building a genuine case as a flag contender and should romp it home against the disappointment of season 2010 in Adelaide.

The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.